The Atlanta Braves will play their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and FOX Sports South is in line to televise the action.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Vegas has listed Miami (+120) as the underdog to Atlanta (-130). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over or the under for -110. The game’s current runline odds stand at +115 for taking the Braves -1.5 runs and -135 for the Marlins +1.5 runs.
The Marlins are 14-24 SU and 18-19 ATS. They’ve lost 2.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.3 units against the spread (ATS). Miami has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Braves are 22-15 SU and have gone 23-13 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 11.6 units for gamblers taking the moneyline through the early part of the year and 10.6 units ATS. Atlanta’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Miami games have an 18-19 over/under record so far in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 17-16-3.
Mike Soroka is projected to start for the visiting Braves. Soroka is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and eight strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Marlins will put the ball in the left hand of Jarlin Garcia (1-1, 2.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), who’s got 26 strikeouts and 15 walks. Garcia did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.
Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.62 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.82 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.61, along with a WHIP of 1.34 and a K/9 of 9.34.
Braves hitters have slashed .268/.338/.437 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game this year, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been powered by right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who have combined to swat 13 home runs. Markakis is slashing .345/.420/.554 with seven home runs, 29 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Freeman has a .319 average with six homers, 28 RBIs and 25 runs scored.
Freeman didn’t perform especially well against lefty pitching last season. Over 143 plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .278/.357/.524 (his overall season line was .307/.403/.586).
For the home team, Miami’s pitchers have yielded 5.3 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 4.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.34 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 11 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 5.26 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.40.
The Miami hitters have put up 3.4 runs per contest, including 3.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .241/.301/.401 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ hitters have been led by catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Justin Bour. Realmuto is slashing .325/.395/.558 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Bour’s line sits at .223/.360/.429 with seven homers, 18 RBIs and 12 runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .278/.332/.451, Realmuto didn’t seem to enjoy hitting at home last year, slashing .224/.287/.340 over 265 plate appearances.
The Braves have gained 2.9 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against y starters.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
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Notes
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Miami has posted 18.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 19.0 over its last five.
The Braves have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 10 over their last 10.
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