The Baltimore Orioles will make a road trip to Fenway Park to square off against their divisional rival Boston Red Sox. The matchup will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network is in line to televise the game.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds
Vegas has listed Baltimore (+155) as the underdog to Boston (-165). Bettors are able to gamble on the game’s total with odds posted at -120 for over 9 runs and even money (+100) for under 9. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds coming in at Orioles +1.5 runs (-140) and Red Sox +-1.5 runs (+120).
The Orioles are just 13-29 SU and are 17-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 14.7 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 7.0 units ATS. Baltimore has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 29-14 SU and 20-22 ATS. They’ve gained 7.0 units for moneyline bettors while earning 3.0 units ATS. Boston has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Boston games have an over/under record of 20-21-1 so far in 2018. Baltimore has an over/under record of 20-20-1.
Right-hander Kevin Gausman is getting the start for the visiting Orioles. Gausman is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He has yet to face Boston this year, but he made four starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 1-2 record with a 2.45 ERA and 16 strikeouts.
The Red Sox are putting the ball in the left hand of David Price (3-4, 4.89 ERA), who has 38 strikeouts and 19 walks as well as a 1.42 WHIP. Price only made one start against the Orioles in 2017 (1-0, 1.29 ERA and seven strikeouts across seven innings).
Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.44 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 7.56 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.53, along with a K/9 of 8.38.
Orioles hitters have slashed .234/.300/.403 on their way to 4.1 runs scored per game this year, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Baltimore’s hitters have been powered by shortstop Manny Machado and left fielder Trey Mancini. Machado is slashing .342/.422/.652 with 13 home runs, 38 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Mancini is hitting .271 with six homers, 16 RBIs and 25 runs scored.
Machado seemed to take a step back when hitting on the road last year. Over 336 plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .229/.268/.398 (his total season line was .260/.311/.473).
For the home team, Boston’s pitching staff has given up 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.69, a WHIP of 1.17 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 25 games against divisional opponents, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.30 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.79.
The Boston offense has produced 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .271/.310/.446 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Red Sox batters have been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is hitting .353/.428/.733 with 13 home runs, 28 RBIs, 44 runs and eight steals, and Martinez’s line sits at .344/.395/.644 with 12 homers, 36 RBIs and 28 runs.
Martinez performed well at home in 2017. Across 253 plate appearances, he slashed .355/.439/.820 (compared to his overall season line of .303/.376/.690).
The Orioles have lost 4.2 units and are 6-8 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 8.8 units and are 17-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 16 of those games, as opposed to 15 which went under the total.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
Baltimore has posted 24.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 24.8 over its last five.
The Orioles have hit 21 home runs in their last 10 games, including 13 over their last five.
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