The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were a bowl team several years ago, but in recent seasons, they have profoundly struggled and have had one of the most difficult periods of any college team in the country. Rutgers is trying to get a foothold in the Big Ten and achieve modest goals such as eclipsing its regular season win total of four games. What is realistic for the Scarlet Knights this season?
Rutgers 2018 regular season win total
Over 4
Under 4
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Scarlet Knights weren’t as bad as they were in 2016, but they were still bad. In 2016, Rutgers went 2-10, so last season’s 4-8 mark represented improvement. Yet, it was still a rough journey for the team, which was crushed by at least 29 points in four separate Big Ten games. Rutgers’ offense was very rarely able to score. RU scored more than 14 points in only four games, and just three times against FBS opponents; one instance came against an FCS opponent. The team scored seven points or fewer in four games.
Some teams are able to be 4-8 in a way which suggests that they are close to being a bowl team, but Rutgers’ path was different. The Knights won close games against Purdue and Maryland but lost comfortably against most of the Big Ten. If anything, last year’s team overachieved and will find it hard to replicate results this year. Illinois was the only Big Ten team other than Purdue and Maryland which Rutgers was able to solve last year.
What Will Change This Year
Artur Sitkowski figures to be the starter at quarterback, with veterans ready to step in and replace him if he falters. There will also be a new offensive coordinator. Jerry Kill, the former head coach at Minnesota who joined the RU staff as offensive coordinator, retired for health-related reasons. Adjusting to a new system is rarely easy, but the process figures to be even more difficult for a developing roster without a lot of proven talent. The lack of continuity will be something the offense has to overcome under head coach Chris Ash.
The other big change for Rutgers this season is that the team’s best and most impactful defensive player, edge rusher Kemoko Turay, is now off to the NFL. Turay was a disruptive playmaker who gave Rutgers’ defense a fearsome presence last season and a real chance to bother opposing offenses. Without him, Rutgers will need a special performance from a replacement. The defense might be weak enough on the front four that it will not be able to develop much of a pass rush. That’s a huge concern going forward.
Outlook & Prediction
The Scarlet Knights play Texas State, Kansas and Buffalo out of conference. Rutgers should win at least one of those games, but it will need to win at least two if it is to have a reasonable chance of exceeding four wins. Winning all three might be necessary. In the Big Ten, a home game against Illinois gives Rutgers, by far, its best chance of winning a conference game. A road game at Maryland is the only other good chance for a win, because RU’s crossover games against the Big Ten West are Wisconsin and Northwestern, which figure to be losses. Ultimately, while a five-win season is realistic, this team has not proven it can be consistently good, and it will need to be consistently good in September in order to get to five wins. The better pick here is the under.
