NFL Picks: The NFC South has certainly gone south as far as quality contending teams. The best evidence is the first place tandem of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons who are both 4-6. The Baltimore Ravens have been solid but unspectacular this year which was their same look in 2012 when they won the Super Bowl.
The New Orleans Saints will host the Baltimore Ravens at the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Monday Night with coverage on ESPN starting at 8:30 PM ET. New Orleans opened as a four point favorite with a total of 50.
Defense Slips Back
New Orleans is 4-6 both straight up and against the spread with a 7-3 mark over the total. The Saints are coming off a 27-10 home loss to Cincinnati for their second consecutive defeat both SU and ATS. The Saints showed vast improvement on defense last season when they returned to the playoffs but have slipped back this year with a ranking of 21st in the NFL for points allowed. Quarterback Drew Brees is triggering the NFL’s second ranked offense which is what has kept the Saints in the playoff race.
Raven for a Playoff Spot
Baltimore is 6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 on totals. Baltimore ranks seventh in the NFL for scoring offense and fifth for scoring defense. The Ravens are coming off a 21-7 home payout over Tennessee to snap a two game losing streak. Baltimore is a game and a half behind first place Cincinnati in the NFC North
Matchup and Pick
Baltimore has struggled as a road betting value lately with just five payouts in their last 13 away match-ups. The Ravens have gone over the total in six out of their last eight away games.
New Orleans on the other hand has been an outstanding board value when playing at home. The Saints have lost just four out of their last 16 games against the spread at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. New Orleans has gone over the total in seven out of their last 10 home games.
Baltimore has won and covered the spread in five out of their last six games with the Saints however. The last three meetings between the Saints and Ravens have gone over the total. The Ravens came away with the cash in their last visit to New Orleans against the Saints. The Ravens and Saints have gone over the total in their last three meetings in New Orleans.
We do not like the look of the Saints defense so Baltimore and over is the call.
