The Atlanta Braves will play their NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans looking to watch it can tune in to Fox Sports Southeast.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Atlanta (+140) is the underdog against Philadelphia (-150) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at -155 for the Braves +1.5 runs and +135 for the Phillies -1.5 runs.
The Braves are 29-18 SU and are 28-18 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 12.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 9.7 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 27-19 SU and 22-23 ATS. The team’s gained 7.0 units for moneyline bettors while earning 3.0 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Neither team has been an obvious over/under bet this year. Phillies games have had an over/under record of 20-22-3 so far in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 22-21-3.
The southpaw Luiz Gohara will get the start for the visiting Braves. Gohara is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA and five strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 1.29 ERA and nine strikeouts across seven innings).
The Phillies are going with righty Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.82 ERA), who has 28 strikeouts and 16 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.14 WHIP. Arrieta did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.61 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 24 divisional games, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.67 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.08.
The Philadelphia offense has produced 4.6 runs per contest, including 3.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .191/.260/.340 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.
Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies’ batters so far. Herrera is slashing .345/.410/.542 with seven home runs, 30 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line sits at .277/.388/.434 with six homers, 16 RBIs, 34 runs and nine steals.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .296/.376/.425, Hernandez performed well against lefty pitching at home last season, hitting .352/.410/.577 across 78 plate appearances.
For the visitors, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.49, along with a K/9 of 9.05.
The Braves offense has slashed .264/.338/.430 on its way to 5.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been powered by outfielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who have combined to belt 16 home runs. Markakis is hitting .340/.410/.511 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Freeman (.326/.427/.556) is up to nine homers, 35 RBIs, 32 runs and five steals.
Maintaining a slash line of .327/.428/.442 across 257 such plate appearances, Markakis performed well against right-handed pitchers on the road last season (compared to his total season slash line of .275/.354/.384).
The Braves have gained 6.6 units and are 21-13 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.8 units and are 6-5 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s cashed in five of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Braves have won three of their last four games SU.
Philadelphia has recorded 19.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 15.6 over its last five.
Both teams have hit 13 home runs over their last 10 games.
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