The Week 1 betting lines have been established in college football. While that hardly means they will stay in place over the next few months, they do offer a general framework for where various teams are expected to achieve in the 2018 season.
Ohio State is favored by 42 over Oregon State, as is appropriate. Alabama is favored by 20 over Louisville, which similarly makes sense since Louisville no longer has Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Oklahoma is favored by “only” 17 over Florida Atlantic because the departure of Baker Mayfield is likely to cause early-season struggles for the Sooners’ offense. Those are a few of the lopsided betting lines. Let’s now focus on Week 1 games expected to be close.
Washington vs. Auburn
College Football Betting Odds: PICK
This game is in Atlanta, where Auburn will have a partisan crowd advantage. The great feature about this game – what will make it so attractive – is that it is the rare early-season battle between two veteran quarterbacks who have the ability to create a shootout. Jake Browning enters his final season at Washington, having led his team to a playoff berth two seasons ago and a New Year’s Six bowl game, the Fiesta Bowl, last season. Browning has endured surgery and some struggles to remain the leader of the Huskies’ offense. Had he not improved his level of play in November of last season, the Huskies would not have made the Fiesta Bowl. He is a proven leader.
Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham is just as much of a proven leader as Browning is. Like Browning, he prefers to throw in the pocket. More than Browning, however, Stidham is capable of making plays with his legs. That is something Auburn might need against a Washington defensive front which is expected to be strong.
West Virginia vs. Tennessee
College Football Betting Odds: West Virginia -7
This is a game in which West Virginia will rely on its quarterback in a number of ways. Will Grier is not just the better quarterback in this matchup with Tennessee’s Keller Chryst. He is also a former quarterback at the University of Florida, which gives him some familiarity with the University of Tennessee. It is true that Tennessee is no longer coached by Butch Jones, who led the Vols the last time Grier faced them, but Grier will personally relish the chance to beat the Vols again. Grier can extend the field with his throws in ways Chryst cannot. West Virginia can do a lot more with its offense, given Grier’s familiarity with the system. Chryst, after coming over from Stanford, is more of a ball-control quarterback who will rely on short passes. West Virginia is in a position to do a lot more on offense.
Michigan at Notre Dame
College Football Betting Odds: Notre Dame -7
The Wolverines are touchdown underdogs because no one trusts Jim Harbaugh to turn around the Wolverines in short order. An erosion of confidence in Michigan from a betting standpoint is very much in evidence. What also hurts Michigan is that Notre Dame is widely acknowledged as having a fast defense with the personnel needed to contain Michigan’s less-than-inspiring wide receivers and running backs. While it is true that Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson could give new life to a generally dormant UM offense, it will probably take time for him to mesh with his other skill position players. Notre Dame will not have this problem with senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush, who was very solid last season and – unlike his disaster at Miami – will be playing this game at home, where he should have a substantial comfort zone.
Miami (FL) vs. LSU
College Football Betting Odds: Miami -3
This is a reunion for Miami coach Mark Richt, who faced LSU in multiple SEC Championship Games and who coached in the SEC at the same time current LSU boss Ed Orgeron led another SEC school, the Ole Miss Rebels. Richt and Orgeron are the reasons Miami is favored in this game. If they were coaching the other team, LSU almost certainly would be the three-point favorite, meaning that the coaches are worth at least six points in this game. It’s not unreasonable.
LSU lost at home to Troy, a Sun Belt team, last season. The Tigers were fortunate to escape from a 20-0 deficit against Auburn, and even then, they went only 9-3 in the 2017 regular season. Miami, on the other hand, won its first ACC Coastal Division championship and played Clemson for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes reached a New Year’s Six bowl game for the first time in over a decade. Richt is delivering at Miami, whereas Orgeron has a lot of work to do to convince people he is worthy of the LSU head coaching position.
Virginia Tech at Florida State PK
College Football Betting Odds: PICK
The battle at quarterback between Virginia Tech’s Josh Jackson and either Deondre Francois or James Blackman of Florida State will be worth the price of admission, but the key is how well FSU head coach Willie Taggart, taking over from Jimbo Fisher, is able to adjust to his personnel and create schemes which will work for the Seminoles in this matchup. Virginia Tech has an extremely sharp offensive mind, head coach Justin Fuente, and an equally if not sharper defensive mind, coordinator Bud Foster. Taggart is seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks, but in a Week 1 situation, he might have to endure an adjustment or transition period against a coaching staff which is more comfortable and established. This is why Florida State is not a favorite at home.
*Odds courtesy of BetDSI.
