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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick 05/26/18

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres will be taking on their in-state adversary Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Fox Sports San Diego will televise the matchup and the game will get going at 10:10 p.m. ET.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

Los Angeles (-185) is hosting this game as the favorite against San Diego (+175) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 7 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). The game’s runline odds sit at -125 for taking the Padres +1.5 runs and +105 for the Dodgers -1.5 runs.

The Padres are 21-31 SU and are 26-25 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 6.3 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are 23-27 SU and 19-30 ATS. They’ve lost 22.8 units for moneyline bettors and 12.7 units ATS. Los Angeles has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Los Angeles games have an over/under record of 24-24-1 so far in 2018. The Padres have an over/under record of 23-26-2.

Jordan Lyles will get the nod for the visiting Padres. The right-handed Lyles is 1-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 36 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA against Los Angeles this year.

The Dodgers will turn to lefty Alex Wood (1-4, 3.32 ERA) to the mound. Wood has 51 punchouts and nine walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.02. Wood is 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA across one starts against San Diego this year.

Los Angeles’ pitching staff has given up 3.9 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.11 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 32 games against NL West foes, Dodgers starters have an ERA of 3.16 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.90.

Los Angeles’ offense is putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .185/.283/.404 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Dodgers’ hitters have been led by outfielders Matt Kemp and Chris Taylor. Kemp is slashing .338/.370/.536 with six home runs, 25 RBIs and 16 runs scored, and Taylor’s line sits at .237/.329/.423 with six homers, 18 RBIs and 33 runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .288/.354/.496, Taylor appeared to take a step back when facing righty pitching at home last season, hitting .236/.295/.416 across 193 plate appearances.

In the other dugout, San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.85 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 8.32 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.14, along with a K-per-9 of 9.42.

The Padres offense has slashed .227/.294/.361 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

San Diego’s offensive production been led by left fielder Jose Pirela and first baseman Eric Hosmer. Pirela is slashing .270/.327/.355 with 54 hits, 16 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Hosmer (.268/.362/.464) is up to 49 hits, six homers, 20 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .300/.364/.575 across 44 such plate appearances, Pirela performed well against left-handed pitching on the road last year (compared to his total season slash line of .288/.347/.490).

The Padres have lost 1.3 units and are 6-10 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in nine of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve hit the under against lefties. On the other hand, the Dodgers have lost 20.3 units and are 11-21 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 21 of those games, as opposed to 11 which went under the total.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Dodgers, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The Dodgers have won seven of their last eight games SU.

Los Angeles has posted 18.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 14.8 over its last five.

The Padres have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Dodgers have hit 14 over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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