It’s the Super Bowl of Hollywood and the World Series of the film industry. The Oscars will be broadcast live on Sunday, February 28 at 7pm EST. Here are my Academy Award predictions. Will there be any upsets?
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant -10,000
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl +2,000
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs +2,500
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo +8,000
Matt Damon – The Martian +10,000
Will Leonardo DiCaprio, who took home the Golden Globe for The Revenant, continue this year’s award streak and take home the Oscar too? The odds are not only showing a runaway for Leo at -10,000, but the buzz is so deafening that it’s hard to believe there will be an upset here. However, this is his sixth nomination and he has yet to walk away with the award, even after such stellar performances in ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’, ‘The Aviator’, and What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. The interesting fact here is that Matt Damon, who is up for his role in The Martian, sits at +10,000, but he actually won the Golden Globe for his role. If anything, I would think that the man who won it would be the potential upset here. I was wrong on Leo’s category for the Golden Globes because I thought that Fassbender would be the upset. Will this be Leonardo’s year? I’m going to ride the DiCaprio victory right now, but if he doesn’t take it, I’m going to go with the underdog Damon.
Best Picture Odds
The Revenant -160
Spotlight +200
The Big Short +400
Mad Max: Fury Road +10,000
The Martian +10,000
Room +15,000
Brooklyn +20,000
Bridge of Spies +25,000
If you think that the buzz for Leonardo DiCaprio is loud, it’s just as noisy for The Revenant to win Best Picture. Spotlight, which could finally get its due and take the award, focuses on allegations against John Goeghan, an unfrocked priest who was accused of molesting more than 80 boys. The Revenant, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, which was based on a true story. ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ was a tremendous commercial success but I’m going to say that, even with the additions of the other nominees, it’s The Revenant’s year.
Best Actress
Brie Larson – Room -2,500
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn +1,200
Cate Blanchett – Carol +3300
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy +3300
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years +6,000
The oddsmakers definitely have a clear picture of who is going to win with no close competition in these categories. I picked Brie Larson to win her category for The Room and I was right. Her victory will carry over again to the Oscars.
Best Supporting Actor
Sylvester Stallone – Creed -350
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies +275
Tom Hardy – The Revenant +2,000
Christian Bale – The Big Short +2,500
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight +5,000
The fan in me wants Mark Ruffalo to win this so bad, and I’m shocked that he’s such an underdog, but it’s about the numbers, not the fandom. So, in this list of nominees which matches precisely the Golden Globe nominations, I’m going to say that it will a carbon copy of the Globes and Sly will win again.
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl -225
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs +350
Rooney Mara – Carol +400
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight – +4,000
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight +10,000
The newcomer Vikander is the favorite for her role in The Danish Girl, but what I said for the Globes, I’ll say for the Oscars. “While I think that Vikander had a breakout year, I think Kate Winslett is going to pull this one out.”
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant -1,000
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road +650
Adam McKay – The Big Short +1,600
Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight +2,000
Lenny Abrahamson – Room +10,000
At this point, you should get used to it that you’ll hear The Revenant so much tonight that, if you haven’t already, you’ll want to run out and watch it. It’s a no brainer here. Inarritu is going to join DiCaprio on stage for this one.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight -1,400
Inside Out +650
Bridge of Spies +2,200
Straight Outta Compton +3,300
Ex Machina +5,000
Wow, great list of nominees, but I’m going on the limb here and choosing the dark horse “Straight Outta Compton.” Straight Outta Compton is a 2015 American biographical drama film that chronicles the rise and fall of the Compton, California hip hop group N.W.A Written by Andrea Berloff and Jonathan Herman, the original screenplay was phenomenal and there should have been many more nominations for this film, but since this is their sole one, I think that they are going to take it.
For a complete list of categories and nominees, check out http://oscar.go.com/
