The opportunity to move on to the Super Bowl is at stake when the New England Patriots travel to Sports Authority Field at Mile High to go up against the Denver Broncos. A player to watch is the NFL’s top passer, Tom Brady (5,072 yards, 38 TDs). It starts at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan 24 and can be seen on CBS.
In last week’s AFC Divisional Round, Denver picked up a win over the Steelers, 23-16. C.J. Anderson had a solid game on the ground in the win, rushing for 72 yards and one TD on 15 carries. New England beat the Chiefs 27-20. Rob Gronkowski had a big game for the Patriots, totaling seven catches for 83 yards and two TDs. Tom Brady had a big game as well, totaling 302 yards and two TDs through the air.
The Broncos, a three-point underdog, will be looking to defend their home field when New England comes to town. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 44 points.
The Broncos enter the game with records of 12-4 Straight Up (SU) and 7-7-2 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Over their last five games, the Broncos have records of 3-2 SU and 0-3-2 ATS. A big source of success for the Broncos this season is the running game, where they average 4.8 yards per carry at home. Transitioning to the Denver defense, there are some factors that could impact the outcome. The second-ranked Broncos run defense gives up 83.4 rushing yards per game and might cause problems for the Patriots. One of the keys to the game will be if the Patriots can protect the quarterback against Denver’s aggressive pass rush. The defense leads the league in sacks with 3.2 per game. New England will want to build a solid lead, because the Broncos are one of the top-scoring teams during the fourth quarter. They’ve averaged eight points in the final quarter this season.
Moving to the road team, the Patriots have a record of 7-6-3 ATS and 12-4 SU. In the previous five games, New England has a record of 3-2 for both SU and ATS. The Patriots try to throw often. On average, they pass 39.3 times per game. Switching gears to the New England defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. When New England’s defensive front gets going, it is an absolute force. This year, the Patriots average 3.1 sacks per game, good enough for second in the league. New England has avoided silly mistakes so far this season. The Patriots record few penalties, ranking fifth with only six per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – NE, O/U – Under
Notes
Denver is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games.
Denver is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games.
Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games when playing New England.
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England.
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England.
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver’s last 11 games when playing at home against New England.
New England is 11-1 SU this season, when leading at the half. Denver is 8-2 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
This season, New England is 2-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (8-0 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Denver defense is averaging 3.2 sacks per game this season, and New England is 4-2 SU when allowing at least 3.0 sacks in a game.
The Denver rushing attack is ranked only 17th in the league, while the New England run defense is ranked ninth. The Patriots’ rushing game is ranked just 30th, compared to the second-ranked run defense of the Broncos.
