This AFC Divisional Round game will take place at Gillette Stadium with both the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots seeking to stay alive. The NFL’s third-leading passer, Tom Brady (4,770 yards, 36 TDs), will play an integral role in the outcome of this game. It will air Saturday, Jan 16 at 4:35 p.m. ET on CBS.
In its last game, New England suffered a loss at the hands of the Dolphins 20-10. Devin McCourty led the defensive effort for New England in the loss, recording seven tackles. Kansas City smashed the Texans 30-0. Travis Kelce had a huge game for the Chiefs, pulling in eight receptions for 128 yards.
New England is a five-point favorite against the Chiefs. The Over/Under (O/U) line is currently at 44 points for this matchup.
Sitting at 12-4 Straight Up (SU) and 7-6-3 Against The Spread (ATS), the Patriots will look to improve heading into Week 19. In their five most recent matchups, the Patriots went 2-3 for both SU and ATS. A focal point of New England’s offense at home is its passing game, which ranks second in the league with 306.6 passing yards per home game. Turning to the Patriots defense, there are several areas to keep an eye on. When playing at home, there are few in the league better than the Patriots at defending the run. New England allows 3.3 yards per rush to its opponents. Kansas City will have to keep New England from hitting their quarterback. The Patriots average the second-most sacks in the league with 3.1 per game. New England avoids costly blunders better than most teams. With 5.2 penalties per game, the Patriots are one of the least penalized teams in the league (second) when playing at their home stadium.
Across the field, the Chiefs head into Week 19 with records of 8-8 ATS and 11-5 SU. Over their last five games, the Chiefs have a SU record of 5-0 and a 2-3 record ATS. The front seven for the Chiefs will be looking to shut down the weak rushing attack of the Patriots, which ranks 30th in the league with an average of 87.8 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs have been outplaying their opponents’ offensive lines this year. Kansas City’s defense ranks fourth in the league with an average of 2.9 sacks per game. Kansas City can return the ball well on the road. The team averages 109.2 return yards per away game, the third-most in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, ATS Winner – KC, O/U – Over
Notes
New England is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games.
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games.
New England is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New England’s last 23 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing Kansas City.
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
Kansas City is 11-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. New England is 10-1 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
New England is 2-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (7-0 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, New England is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its fifth-ranked offensive passing game will face the ninth-ranked pass defense of Kansas City, while its 17th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 30th-ranked aerial attack of the Chiefs.
Kansas City has only allowed 20.0 points per game on the road, which ranks it seventh in the league. New England, however, has scored 31.6 points per contest at home (ranked third overall).
