The Air Force Falcons fly into the Big House to play the 7th ranked Michigan Wolverines on Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The game is scheduled to begin on Saturday, September 16th at 12:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on the Big-10 Network. The Wolverines are -24.5 point favorites and the contest’s total is at 55.
It’s a non-conference match-up between a ranked Power Five program and a mid-major program. The Falcons are coming off a bye week after their complete destruction of VMI two weeks ago. They kept the pedal to the metal in that game and won 62-0 in their home opener.
Michigan won their second straight contest as they clubbed Cincinnati 36-14 at home last Saturday. The Wolverines hold a 2-0 advantage in the all-time regular season series, including a 31-25 win at home in the most recent meeting September 8, 2012.
Air Force Falcons (1-0)
The Falcons had two weeks to prepare for the Wolverines after having last week off. Air Force will have a much harder time moving the rock against Michigan than they did against the Keydets.
In their last outing, Air Force had a commanding 647-95 advantage in total yards and racked up 32 first downs while their defense allowed only six. Furthermore, the Falcons controlled the clock, holding the ball for 35:21 minutes to VMI’s 24:39 and forcing the only turnover of the game.
Quarterback Arion Worthman and Nate Romine actually threw the ball around the field against the Keydets two weeks ago. Worthman completed eight ball for 172 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran the ball for 33 yards and a score. Nate Romine also completed his only two passes for another touchdown. So far so good in the passing game heading into Ann Arbor.
Falcon’s play maker Timothy McVey proved that he’s more than just a running back against VMI. First, he rushed the ball 10 times for 98 yards and a score. More impressively, McVey also caught a team-high three passes for 77 yards. In all, Air force ran the ball for 457 yards and averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Amazingly, 15 different backs took hand-offs for yardage in their opener.
Defensively, there’s not much more that a unit could do to support their offense. The Falcons limited the Keydets to under 100 yards of total offense and created the game’s lone turnover.
All that will change come Saturday as the Falcons will face a much larger and faster offensive team in the Wolverines. This will be a great measuring stick for the offensive line as well as the men in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball.
(7) Michigan Wolverines (2-0)
The Wolverines stayed unbeaten in their 36-14 triumph over the Cincinnati Bearcats last weekend. Once again, the Michigan defense led the way by holding the Bearcats to only 200 yards and 14 first downs.
Unfortunately, the offense started off slow and really didn’t impress too many folks. The Wolverines only recorded 16 first downs of their own and managed to put up 400 yards of offense against a tired Cincinnati defense. Overall, both schools turned the ball over twice so the Wolverines have to figure out how to get their offense going if they hope to have some success in Big-10 play.
There is nothing special about Michigan’s passing offense heading into this match-up against the Falcons. In fact, the Wolverines rank 75th in the nation with 219 yards per game. Wilton Speight has been average over his first two games of the season. Speight is 28 of 54 passing for 402 yards with three touchdowns against two interceptions.
Michigan prefers to keep the chains moving via the ground game. You really can’t blame them considering the above stats. Ty Isaac is the leading ground gainer for the Wolverines with 31 carries for 247 yards. Tail back Chris Evans is next in line with 27 carries for 93 yards. Together, the two tallied 25 rushes for nearly 150 yards and no scores against the Bearcats.
Leading receiver Grant Perry has a team-high eight catches for 112 yards plus a score. Wide out Tarik Black also has six grabs for 94 yards and a touchdown. Sean McKeon and Kekoa Crawford have combined for 10 more catches and 150 yards of receiving. If Wilson Speight can become more consistent, all four could find ways to contribute against the Falcons.
The Wolverine defense has been as advertised heading into this game at home. Even though they had to replace 90 percent of their defense coming into the year, they still are tied for 31st in scoring defense as they allow 15.5 points per game.
I fully expect Michigan to load the box and make Arion Worthman beat them through the air. Remember this, the Wolverines defense has scored four touchdowns already in 2017. Pretty good considering they put three on the board in 2016.
Prediction
Air Force has had two weeks to prepare for this game but it’s a tall task to take down a top 10 team on the road. The Falcons are trying to add a bit of the aerial assault to their triple option game, which could make them dangerous. It would also help if they can run the ball and capitalize on some play-action.
Wilson Speight has to get something going before Jim Harbaugh shows him the bench and puts in John O’Korn to take over the offense. The Air Force secondary just might be that chance for him to improve. The Falcons may have looked good against lowly VMI, but they have a green secondary and will be tested by the speed of the Wolverine wide outs.
Line setters have the Wolverines as a -24.5 point favorite in the Big House. I personally love the half point hook here. Air Force will be able to run the ball a little and that should be enough to keep the Michigan play-makers at bay.
The 55 points here could be hit or miss because the Michigan defense is so athletic. Also, Wilson Speight is literally hit or miss. I’m going to error on the side of the over but won’t be backing that bet up with my pocket book.
Trends
The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
The Under is 5-1 in the Falcons last 6 vs. Big Ten.
The Over is 8-2 in the Falcons last 10 games overall.
The Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
The Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. MWC.
The Over is 6-0-1 in the Wolverines last 7 non-conference games.
The Over is 5-0-1 in the Wolverines last 6 games in September.
