The Air Force Falcons and the Navy Midshipmen go to war in the first battle for the Commander-in-Chiefs Trophy this Saturday in Maryland. The armed forced contest is set to go off on Saturday, October 7th at 3:30 p.m. EST. The age-old rivalry can be seen by their fans on the CBS Sports Network. Heading into this match-up, Las Vegas has the Navy Midshipmen as a -7.5, which is quite a drop from the original -12 posted on Monday. They also have this contest’s over/under set at 53.
The Air Force Falcons are off to a rough start, but they’ve faced the tougher schedule of the two teams. After a solid performance on the road against the Wolverines, the Falcons have lost two straight. Last week, they were smacked around by the New Mexico Lobos, 56-38 on the road.
The Naval Academy is now 4-0 and coming into this game off a 31-21 defeat of the high-powered Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Surely, a victory over the Falcons will all but secure another Commander-in-Chiefs Trophy for the Midshipmen. Everybody expects Navy to put up their fair share of points in a game but it’s their defense that has been keeping teams to a manageable level.
Last year, Air Force got the better of the Midshipmen in Colorado Springs 28-14. Now, Navy will be looking for a little revenge as the Falcons fly into this game on the heels of a three-game losing streak.
Air Force Falcons (1-3)
Surprisingly, the Falcons really struggled to get their running game going against the New Mexico Lobos last weekend. They also didn’t have an answer for head coach Bob Davies rushing attack. That is not good news when you are set to face the nation’s number one rushing team.
Quarterback Arion Worthman did manage to come up just shy of the century mark against the Lobos. Unfortunately, it took him 30 carries to do it. That is something that I surely didn’t expect when facing a mediocre defense like New Mexico.
So far this year, Worthman has rushed the ball 93 times for 245 yards and three touchdowns. What’s really disconcerting is the fact that he is only averaging only 2.6 yards per rush. Those numbers just won’t cut it against Navy this weekend in Maryland.
Running back Timothy McVey is proving to be the better option in Air Force’s option running attack. The offensive minds that be over in Colorado Springs might want to consider giving him a few more looks against the Midshipmen.
Since the start of the season, McVey has toted the rock only 42 times for 278 yards and three trips to pay-dirt. More importantly, McVey is averaging 6.6 yards a run compared to the low numbers that Arion Worthman is putting up.
Even though the Falcons are doing some experimenting with the passing game, it really hasn’t flourished so far. Arion Worthman has completed only 19 passes for 396 yards but does have six touchdowns and only one pick.
Wide receivers Geraud Sanders and Ronald Cleveland have combined for 10 catches for just under 250 yards and five touchdowns. Both are averaging well over 20 yards per catch but that is to be expected with the Falcons play-action game.
The Falcons did a better job defensively against top 25-San Diego State in their 28-24 home loss than they did against the Lobos. They also lost to Michigan 29-13, so they’ve competed well against ranked opponents. Overall, Air Force has allowed 198.8 rushing yards per game (105th) but just 133.8 yards through the air (3rd).
Navy Midshipmen (4-0)
The Midshipmen sit undefeated at 4-0 but really haven’t played anybody worth writing home to mom about. They did go on the road and beat Tulsa, who has an explosive offense. Other than that, there hasn’t been very much competition put in front of Navy this season.
Last week, quarterback Zach Abby threw just four passes but he also ran it 36 times for 185 yards with three rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, he kept the kept the high-octane offense from Tulsa off the field.
In fact, the Midshipmen rushed for 421 yards and kept the ball for over 39 minutes. They also took care of the football, turning it over just one. Overall, Abey has rushed for 656 yards with seven scores, while throwing for 385 yards with three touchdowns and two picks.
Running backs Chris High and Malcolm Perry also do their part out of the Navy backfield. Combined the two backs have rumbled for just over 500 yards and three scores. Impressively, Perry has over a nine-yard average per handoff. Together with Zach Abby, the Midshipmen are the best running game in the FBS.
Like Air Force above, the Naval Academy prefers to run the ball first. When they do look to move the chains through the air they call upon wide receivers Tyler Carmona and Darryl Bonner. Carmona has reeled in four balls for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Bonner isn’t far behind, catching three more passes for 92 yards and another trip to the end zone.
A huge surprise for the Midshipmen in 2017 has been the outstanding play of their defense. Heading into this game, Navy sits at 43rd in the country with 129 yards against the rush. They also do pretty well in pass-coverage, allowing only 213 yards through the air (55th). Navy has really only faced one decent offensive football team this year so the numbers may be a little skewed coming into this match-up with the Falcons.
Prediction
This match-up can be tricky for bettors when they look at these two clubs’ records. On paper, Navy has scored over 30 points in each of their four wins while Air Force has lost three in a row. Sometimes, numbers aren’t always the best way to judge. Both of these teams circle this game on their calendar to start out the year. The home team winning seven of the last 10 is a testament to that.
Most of the time, you can throw out the records when these two academies suit up to play one another. I suggest that is the case once again for this game. Yes, Air Force has struggled but played well on the road losing at Michigan and another sloppy one loss against San Diego State. It’s my opinion, that the Falcons were looking ahead to this game in their loss to the Lobos.
Line setters have the Midshipmen as a 7.5 point favorite and I’m suggesting you think dog here and bet on Air Force. Not only do you get the hook with this play but these two should battle back and forth for all four quarters. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Navy fell behind early.
Vegas also has this over/under at 53 points. I can see why. The Midshipmen haven’t had problems with scoring and the Falcons didn’t do anything to stop the run last week. Also, the Navy defense is still a bit of unknown as they really haven’t been tested yet. With that being said, I typically try to stay away from totals in games where both teams mirror one another. My gut says they will hit the over 53 in this but I’m staying away from it. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
The Falcons are 13-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
The Over is 9-3 in the Falcons last 12 road games.
The Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Midshipmen are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games.
The Over is 9-2 in the Midshipmen last nine home games.
The Falcons are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
