The Akron Zips were not expected to be here. The Toledo Rockets certainly had the talent to be here, but had often found a way to fall short of this stage. Two different teams will compete in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in Detroit, with the game being moved from its longstanding home on Friday night to a new Saturday afternoon time slot. It will be interesting to see how these teams handle the pressure and adrenaline of the moment, because they are not used to it.
Details
Odds: Rockets -21.5
Date & Time: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Broadcast: ESPN
Reasons To Bet On The Akron Zips
The Zips are in the MAC Championship Game for the first time since 2005. Ohio and Bowling Green had made several appearances in the game from the MAC’s East Division, where Akron resides. The Zips had not been able to find the winning formula in the division for more than a decade, and when they went 1-3 in non-conference play to start the season, it did not seem that this team was going to be ready to change the story. However, quarterback Kato Nelson took off in MAC games, leading the Zips to a 6-2 record in eight conference games. The Zips overcame early mistakes against Ohio in a November battle for the MAC East title. Their defense stood tall in the fourth quarter and prevented Ohio from getting the big play which could have turned the tide. Terry Bowden, who led Auburn to an unbeaten season in 1993 and an SEC West championship in 1997, has rediscovered himself at Akron. He led the Zips to their first bowl win in 2015 and has this team peaking at the right time again.
One other reason to pick Akron against the spread is that MAC title games have often been surprising. Some underdogs of a touchdown or more have won the game outright, and many other heavy underdogs have covered the spread. Favorites do not have a strong record in this game of covering the spread. Last year’s Western Michigan-Ohio game was an example, just one of many.
Reasons To Bet On The Toledo Rockets
The Rockets won a meeting against Ohio earlier this season by a score of 48-21. With quarterback Logan Whiteside, they have the better and more polished signal caller in this game. They have the superior skill position players and the more explosive offense. Akron’s 1-3 record outside the MAC showed up against highly capable opponents. Toledo is the most capable and talented team in the MAC. The talent differential is noticeable.
Beyond that, this is Toledo’s first MAC title game since 2004. The Rockets have often brought a very strong team to each MAC season, but in almost every year since 2004, the Northern Illinois Huskies stood in their way. NIU had been Toledo’s nemesis, consistently beating the Rockets in an early November matchup which typically decided the MAC West title. On a few other occasions, Central Michigan produced an especially good team to win the West, and last year, Western Michigan outfought Toledo for the West title. This is the year when Western and Central Michigan were ordinary, and Toledo was finally able to beat NIU to cross the threshold. This is such a big deal for the Rockets. They will be jumping through the roof with excitement in Detroit.
Outlook
Toledo opened up as an 18.5-point favorite in this spot and all of the money has been on them so far. The line has climbed all the way up to 21.5, which crosses a key number. As for the total, the money has been on the over. It opened up at 54 and currently sits at 58.5.
Toledo will win – of that there seems to be little doubt. However, MAC title games very rarely produce a runaway for the favored team. Akron will play two or three good quarters, enough to stick around and make Toledo sweat a little. The Rockets will win, but not by more than the three touchdowns they need to cover.
Prediction: Zips +21.5
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