The Minnesota Twins (85-77) are facing off against the New York Yankees (91-71) in the Bronx for the AL Wild Card game, with the chance for a meeting against the first-place Cleveland Indians in the American League Division Series. The Yankees wrapped up the Wild Card standings with a 6.0 game lead over the Twins and have dominated the Twins in terms of run differential (+198 vs. +27). In fact, the Yankees boast the second-best run differential in the AL and the entire league, trailing only the Indians. Let’s take a look at how they should fare in the Wild Card game against the Twins.
Details
Date – Tuesday October 3rd, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – NYY -23
Why The Twins Might Win The Wild Card Game
After losing 103 games in 2016 and having failed to make the postseasons since 2010, the Twins are back in the playoff picture in a big way. Surprisingly, the Twins have a better record on the road than at home (41-40 vs. 44-37), which may provide fans with added hope. For this win-or-go-home Wild Card game, the Twins are sending Ervin Santana to the mound. In the 2017 regular season, Santana has compiled a 16-8 record with a 3.28 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 7.1 K/9, along with an opposing slash line of .225/.286/.392. While Santana has been able to limit his BB:K ratio (0.37:1), his home-run rate is slightly concerning, as he’s given up 1.32 HR/9 during the regular season. However, during the last month leading up to the postseason, Santana has a 2-1 record to go along with a 2.83 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 while giving up 3 HR in 28.2 IP – better than his season numbers, but not by much. Santana has only faced the Yankees once on the year, taking a loss that game while allowing 7 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, and 3 K in 5.2 IP. The Twins have been doubted all season long and this game is no different as they’re heavy underdogs. If Santana can continue to perform at a higher level than his career averages indicate, the Twins will have a good fighting chance in this game.
Why The Yankees Might Win The Wild Card Game
The Yankees are back in the postseason on the back of rookie Aaron Judge’s epic 52-HR season. Judge led the AL and shattered the rookie record with his 52 home runs. Having mounted a strong finish to the season, the Yankees only trailed the Red Sox by 2.0 games at the end of the regular season – who knows if the Yankees would have surpassed the Red Sox had the regular season included an extra week of play. The Yankees have played well at home all year long, boasting a 51-30 record, compared to their poor road record of 40-41. The Yankees will roll with 23-year-old Luis Severino in this Wild Card game. Severino has compiled a 14-6 record on the year with a 2.98 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9, along with an opposing slash line of .208/.266/.338. With such heavy strikeout numbers, Severino has been able to limit his number of walks issued (0.22:1 BB:K ratio) along with his home-run rate, allowing 0.97 HR/9. Additionally, Severino has been nearly unhittable during the last month of the season, posting a 2-0 record along with a 2.63 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9. In his only start against the Twins this season, Severino was rocked for 5 H and 3 ER while lasting only 3.0 IP. However, if he’s able to pitch to his numbers during the regular season and the Yankees’ offense gets going, they should be headed to the ALDS.
Outlook
The Yankees are clearly the better team, starting pitcher included. However, Severino is a young pitcher starting in arguably the most important game of his life while Santana is a savvy veteran. Here’s a look at Santana’s key head-to-head matchups against the Yankees as Severino’s head-to-head statistics against the Twins are too limited.
Santana vs. Yankees
- Brett Gardner .355/.394/.452 with 0 HR, 2 BB, and 3 K in 31 AB
- Todd Frazier .190/.333/.524 with 2 HR, 5 BB, and 7 K in 21 AB
- Didi Gregorius .118/.167/.118 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 1 K in 17 AB
- Chase Headley .308/.357/.385 with 0 HR, 0 BB, and 1 K in 13 AB
- Matt Holliday .417.417/1.083 with 2 HR, 0 BB, and 1 K in 12 AB
- Aaron Judge 1 HR and 1 K in 3 AB
Clearly, the above head-to-head statistics paint an inconsistent story. While the Twins are certainly capable of winning the Wild Card game, the Yankees have been the better team, especially in terms of run differential, which is a very good indicator of a team’s true strength. The lines are reflected quite accurately in this Wild Card game and I believe the Yankees should move on to the ALDS and end the Twins’ season.
Pick: Yankees -230
The MLB season is in coming to a conclusion, so if you’re looking at betting lines, in-game betting and World Series futures, click here to bet on MLB (or any other sports) at BetDSI!
