The UCF Knights (5-1) square off with the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) at CFE Federal Credit Union Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 29, 2018, and will air on ESPNU.
Alabama Crimson Tide at UCF Knights ATS Prediction
In the Crimson Tide’s last matchup, they beat the Murray State Racers, 78-72. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Alabama’s biggest strengths. They had 30 free throw attempts, while Murray State had just 12. Alabama received a boost from Kira Lewis Jr., who was the team’s leading scorer with 20 points on 6-for-13 shooting.
The Knights were victorious over the Northern Kentucky Norse in their last matchup, 66-53. The Knights had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.340 (above their season average of 0.240) and held the Norse to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.6 (below their season average of 33.0). Tacko Fall led UCF in scoring with 20 points on 7-for-8 shooting from the field.
The Knights won the only game against the Crimson Tide last season, 65-62. The Knights’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Crimson Tide. UCF had a rate of 33.3, while Alabama posted a mark of 22.9.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, UCF should have a substantial edge. Since last season, the Knights defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.454), while the Alabama offense ranks 155th in effective field goal percentage (0.517). Moreover, the Crimson Tide rank 22nd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.290), while the Knights rank 19th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.184).
Alabama vs. UCF Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Ucf, ATS Winner – Alabama, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Alabama averages 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks 14th in the nation. UCF ranks 187th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
The Knights rank 43rd in three pointers allowed per game (19.6) while the Crimson Tide rank 155th (21.5).
Alabama ranks 217th in assists per game (12.9) while UCF ranks 296th (11.2).
The Crimson Tide rank 180th in steals per game (6.1) while the Knights rank 250th (5.3).
UCF averages 35.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 144th in the country. Alabama ranks 168th in rebounds allowed per game (35.0).
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