It will be a battle between Southeastern opponents when the No. 16 Kentucky Wildcats (20-7) welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide (16-10) to Rupp Arena. The game begins at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Feb. 23 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Wildcats lost a tough one against Texas A&M 79-77 on Saturday. Tyler Ulis recorded 22 points and 11 assists, earning his fifth double-double of the year. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 67-61 loss at the hands of Mississippi State on Saturday. Retin Obasohan stood out for Alabama, registering 22 points, six rebounds, and three assists.
Over the last five games, Jamal Murray and Ulis have played well for the Wildcats. During that stretch, Murray has averaged 26.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.8 steals, and 5.0 three-pointers. Not to be outdone, Ulis has put up 18.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers. On the other side, the Crimson Tide have been led by Obasohan. He has been on a tear, averaging 20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers in the same time frame.
The Wildcats could own the offensive glass in this matchup, as they rank 13th in the nation in OR% at 38.0%. Conversely, Alabama places 319th in the nation on the defensive backboards with a DR% of 66.7%.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Wildcats won the first game 77-61. Alex Poythress was a top performer in the victory with 25 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks.
The Wildcats come into this game 20-7 Straight Up (SU) and 12-15 Against The Spread (ATS). Kentucky has some room to improve after their below-average performances recently. In the last 10 games, Kentucky has only averaged 69.7 points per game compared to the 78.8 they’ve averaged on the season. Teams have a tough time keeping Kentucky off of the offensive glass. They rank 33rd in Division I in offensive rebounds. Turning to the defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Wildcats. The 62.9 points that Kentucky’s defense allows per home game makes them the 36th-ranked defense at home. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Wildcats, who allow a field goal percentage of only .393.
Over on the other bench, the Crimson Tide have 16-10 SU and 15-10 ATS records. During the last 10 games, they averaged 81.3 PPG, above their 67.6 PPG season average.
Kentucky won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bringing its SU record to 8-2 over Alabama in their most recent games. The Crimson Tide lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Kentucky held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice, while Alabama was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Kty, ATS Winner – Kty
Notes
The Kentucky Wildcats average 78.8 points per game, ranking 47th in the nation. The Alabama Crimson Tide rank 60th in points allowed with 67.1.
Kentucky averages 79.4 points per home game (ranked 94th). Alabama allows 68.6 points per away game (ranked 39th).
Ranked 24th, the Kentucky Wildcats have an offensive rating of 115.2. The Alabama Crimson Tide rank 114th with a defensive rating of just 100.9.
The Kentucky Wildcats average 68.4 possessions and 1.152 points per possession in games this season. The Alabama Crimson Tide average fewer possessions with 66.7, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.013.
Kentucky has an average effective field goal percentage of 53.1%. Alabama is a losing 1-3 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Kentucky attempts an average of 18.0 three pointers per game and Alabama attempts 23.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Kentucky Wildcats have a winning 10-5 record while the Alabama Crimson Tide have a 12-9 record.
Kentucky, the ninth-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 5.7 per game. Alabama ranks 31st with 5.1.
Kentucky ranks 33rd in offensive rebounding. Alabama ranks 164th in defensive rebounding.
On average, Kentucky forces a turnover rate of 18.9%. When Alabama turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 13-5 record.
