The (1) Alabama Crimson Tide will try to stay unbeaten when they enter Wade Davis stadium to play the 918) Mississippi State Bulldogs this weekend. The SEC Conference game is slated to get going on Saturday, November 11th at 7 p.m. EST. Fans of college football can watch this showdown on ESPN for their Saturday evening football fix. Coming into this match-up, the Crimson Tide are -13 point favorites. That is down from -14.5 when it came out on Monday. The game’s over/under has barely moved and now sits at 50.5 points.
The Alabama Crimson Tide extended their perfect record to 9-0 when they took care of LSU 24-10 in Tuscaloosa. In that game, Alabama used their stifling defense to limit the Tigers to only 306 total yards and 10 points. Unfortunately, their offense was held to only 299 yards and a season-low 116 via the ground.
Since losing to Auburn 49-10 four weeks ago, Mississippi State has reeled off four straight victories. Most recently, they beat the Massachusettes Minutemen at Davis Wade Stadium 34-23. In that non-conference battle, the Bulldogs found themselves down by a touchdown at halftime. Nevertheless, they came out and scored 21 second-half points and put the feisty Minutemen away to go to 7-2 on the season.
In 2016, these two schools met up in Alabama. The Crimson Tide punished the Bulldogs by racking up over 600 yards of total offense on their way to a 51-3 triumph. It’s not surprising that Mississippi State has only won one game against the Tide in their last 10 tries. That victory was all the way back in 2007.
(1) Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0)
In the Tides’ previous two contests against the Razorbacks and Vols, Alabama put up a total of 41 and 45 points. That same offense did not produce in a 24-10 victory over LSU last Saturday. They did generate a few big plays that swung the momentum in their favor but overall they were shut down by the Tigers’ defense.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become one of the better running backs in college football. Although he hasn’t made a lot of big plays down the field, he has made up for it with the use of his legs. So far, Hurts has thrown the ball for just over 1,400 yards with 10 touchdowns and only one interception. He also has run the ball 98 times for another 616 times with seven more scores.
Running backs Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough make a nice one-two punch out of the backfield. Harris has a team-high 90 carries for 730 yards and 10 trips to the back of the end zone. Scarbrough has toted the pigskin 92 times for 416 yards and seven trips to pay-dirt. With Hurts in the mix, Alabama has the nation’s 9th-ranked rushing offense (278 ypg).
When Jalen Hurts looks to throw the ball downfield, there is little question as to who he is looking for. The Crimson Tide’s leading receiver Calvin Ridley has had to do it all this season. Through the first nine games, Ridley has reeled in a team-high 44 catches for 584 yards and two scores. In fact, not one other Alabama wideout has even registered more than 12 catches.
Defensively, the Crimson Tide are once again the top defense in FBS football. Their front half sits second in the country, allowing only 77 rushing yards a game. The secondary isn’t far behind, sitting in 9th (168 ypg). All totaled, the unit is holding opposing teams to only 9.8 points a contest (1st), and only 245 total yards (2nd). Obviously, head coach Nick Saban’s defense reloaded after sending six starters from 2016 to the NFL.
(18) Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2)
A lot like Alabama’s performance against the Tigers, the Bulldogs also underachieved offensively. Even so, they produced enough to get the job done against the Minutemen. In fact, it took Deddrick Thomas’ 89-yard punt return to put them away in the fourth-quarter.
Amazingly, quarterback Nick Fitzgerald’s numbers almost mimic that of Jalen Hurts. He also can move the ball with his feet as well as his arm. The big difference is that Fitzgerald hasn’t had the support out of the backfield. As a result, he has made too many mistakes in the pocket. Overall, the signal-caller has tossed the ball for 1,459 with 13 touchdowns and 10 picks. When running the ball, he has accumulated another 801 yards and 12 more scores.
One running back stands out when the Bulldogs spell Nick Fitzgerald in the run game. Aeris Williams has carried the ball 163 times for 776 yards and two trips to glory. Unfortunately, Mississippi State just hasn’t had anybody else step up and help move the chains.
Nick Fitzgerald does spread the football around when looking downfield. Still, there is an obvious lack of production in the receiving department as well. Keith Mixon leads the unit 255 yards and Donald Gray has a team-high 24 catches and three touchdowns. If the Bulldogs hope to keep the Alabama defense on its toes, other players will have to step up to keep the passing productive.
The Mississippi State defense has been a nice surprise heading into this SEC match-up. The secondary is the eighth best in the country, yielding 165 yards a game. The front half is 23rd, allowing 124 yards a contest. In all, the unit as a whole is giving up only 18 points a contest (15th). We’ll have to wait and see if they can find ways to frustrate Jalen Hurts this weekend.
Prediction
When I wrote this article, it became pretty obvious that these two clubs are a lot alike. Both have dual-threat quarterbacks and not a whole lot to brag about in their passing games. Also, both schools play solid defense against their opponents. It really looks like a classic case of four-star recruits one the Crimson Tide side and two-star recruits on the Bulldogs.
With that being said, it’s hard for me to see these two programs combining for 50.5 points in this conference game. I do think both will find some ways to score but it will not be enough to push that total. Put your money on two of the nation’s better defenses and play the under 50.5.
The spread here is almost two touchdowns. That scares me a bit with neither of these teams showing me any balance on offense. I think the best bet here is to buy the Bulldogs up to 14.5 and hope that their home-field advantage is enough to keep this game close. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Go to BetDSI Sportsbook to make a play on this game or any other that peaks your interest this weekend.
Trends
The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Under is 38-18-1 in the Crimson Tide last 57 games in November.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Bulldogs last 5 conference games.
Under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings.
