Kirk Cousins was a hot commodity early in the offseason, but not for his original team. The Washington Redskins put an end to whatever interest they had in bringing Cousins back when they traded for Kansas City‘s starter, Alex Smith, roughly two weeks before the end of the 2017 league year.
It’s Official: Welcome to the #Redskins, Alex Smith! #HTTR pic.twitter.com/cQWBwBBjkW
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) March 14, 2018
Smith helped plenty of fantasy teams in 2017 and could very well do so again. Unfortunately, he also has a long history of being the typical bye-week fill-in quarterback who is on six different teams before the end of the season. In a new situation, it’s difficult to say which version of the former number-one pick we’ll get.
Reasons to Get Excited
Career Year
Smith was a borderline fantasy MVP for much of last season. He was the third-highest scoring quarterback in the league behind Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, and in all likelihood would have finished second had the Chiefs not decided to rest him in Week 17.
Smith saw career-highs in completions (341), yards (4,042), yards per attempt (8), touchdowns (26) and QB rating (104.7). Despite his reputation for checkdowns, he was Pro Football Focus’ most accurate deep ball passer. By all accounts, he was incredible in 2017.
Smooth Transition
Smith ‘s new situation may be considered a slight step down from the one he enjoyed in Kansas City, but he’ll have solid weapons in Washington. They may even be better if they can stay healthy. Jordan Reed, Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson can be every bit as effective as the Chiefs’ receivers were.
Though Smith doesn’t have a history with Washington’s coaching staff, there are reasons to believe he’ll enjoy a smooth transition. Andy Reid and Jay Gruden are both members of the Jon Gruden coaching tree. Plus, few players have had to learn more offenses than Smith. He had five different offensive coordinators in his first five seasons with the 49ers.
Rushing and Durability
Though not known for his rushing ability, Smith finished sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards (355) in 2017. He is fourth in career rushing yards among active quarterbacks, trailing only Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. The Redskins should use Smith as a runner more often than the less-athletic Cousins.
Further, he rarely misses games. He played in 15 or more games in each of the last five years.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Pre-2017 Numbers
Smith was never a legitimate week-to-week fantasy starter until last season. Here are his fantasy finishes in his five seasons with Kansas City:
2013: QB13
2014: QB18
2015: QB16
2016: QB23
2017: QB3
Though he was never completely useless, he was never one to get excited about. Counting on a repeat of 2017 would be a good old-fashioned case of recency bias. He’s much more likely to finish in the middle of the pack.
New Receivers
While Smith ought to be able to pick up Washington’s offense, developing a rapport with his new receivers is another story. Aside from Vernon Davis, Smith doesn’t have any experience with the receivers he’ll target most.
The Rams concluded in a study that it now takes players 3 years to get the same amount of practice time as it did in 1 year under the old CBA. It’s one reason why the draft isn’t what it used to be https://t.co/RlsLcPEb6a
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) April 19, 2018
They won’t have much time to get on the same page and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the entire offense struggle early. If that happens, it will be hard to hold on to Smith.
Age
Smith turns 34 in May and is entering his 14th season. Quarterbacks tend to last longer than most, but this is the time in a player’s career when injury risks begin to increase. It’s an added risk for a player who already has several question marks.
Conclusion
The best thing about Smith is he should be available for a low price. He’s probably not going to build on 2017, but if he’s a late-round flier, then so what? If he hits, you have one of the steals of the draft once again. Just don’t bank on Pro Bowl numbers in back-to-back seasons. History suggests a return to mediocrity.
