Allen Robinson was a popular choice for a bounce-back season with the resurgent Jaguars in 2017. The campaign didn’t last long, as Robinson tore his ACL after his first and only catch of the season. He became a free agent without the benefit of a contract year and was signed early in free agency by the Chicago Bears.
We have agreed to terms on a three-year deal with WR Allen Robinson.
🐻⬇️, @Thee_AR15! pic.twitter.com/cR6luM8dp9
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) March 15, 2018
There’s plenty of excitement going around, and for good reason. On the other hand, this also has the potential to be a time to use the hype to your advantage and let someone else roll the dice.
Reasons to Get Excited
A True Number One Receiver in Chicago
No one can deny the skills Robinson showed off in Jacksonville. The 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown season he put up in 2015 had him drafted no later than the early second round in 2016. The tape stands out too, as Brian Baldinger’s breakdown shows:
The @ChicagoBears landed a #1 WR in free agency.
How will @AllenRobinson help @MTrubisky10?
(via @BaldyNFL) https://t.co/bKKIJvnALU
— NFL (@NFL) March 21, 2018
Chicago fans and fantasy players alike have waited for Kevin White to burst onto the scene, but it may be time to let the dream die. Robinson has already shown he can be a top receiver and a fantasy stud, even with Blake Bortles throwing him the ball.
The Red Zone
Consider the following stat:
Totally ABSURD Tyler Eifert stat:
They last 3 years Eifert is tied for 6th in red zone TD catches (16), despite playing in only 23 of 48 games (2nd most TEs only):
• 18: Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald & Allen Robinson
• 17: Jordan Reed, Davante Adams
• 16: Eifert & 4 others— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 15, 2018
Yes, the tweet is about an impressive Tyler Eifert stat, but what about Robinson? He’s tied for the most red zone touchdowns over the last three years and missed all of 2017.
Imagine if Robinson had stayed healthy. Even after a bad season, he likely would have the most red zone touchdowns in the league over that stretch. A good season would have put him in the lead by a comfortable margin. Anyone would want that kind of production on their team.
Coaching Change
The Bears hired former Kansas City offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as head coach and former University of Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator. The spread offense is making its way to Chicago to replace the vanilla John Fox-era offenses. That should mean improvement for the entire Chicago offense, including Robinson.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Trubisky is an Unknown Commodity
The Bears had the worst passing offense in the league in 2017. There are many reasons for that, including the aforementioned coaching, a lack of dynamic playmakers and growing pains from rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The jury will be out on Trubisky for a while, but he is one of the few holdovers from Chicago’s dismal offense in 2017.
We mentioned Robinson thriving with Blake Bortles, who is average at best. That raises Robinson’s ceiling in Chicago since we’ve seen him produce without elite quarterback play. The problem is, for all we know, Trubisky is even worse. Uncertainty at quarterback can destroy any fantasy receiver. Believing in Robinson will require belief in Trubisky, and that’s a tough pill to swallow at this point.
One-Hit Wonder?
As incredible as Robinson’s 2015 was, it was the best season of his career by a comfortable margin. The torn ACL in 2017 wasn’t his fault, but his combined numbers in 2014 and 2016 (1,431 yards, eight touchdowns) didn’t produce as many fantasy points as 2015. It should raise eyebrows when Robinson is declared a number-one receiver when he’s only had one season with the stats of a number-one receiver.
Injury
Since Robinson tore his ACL in Week 1, he has had plenty of time to recover. There are recent examples of ACL reconstructions going well and examples of them failing miserably. Jordy Nelson returned and was the same player, while Jamaal Charles barely played and ended up back on injured reserve. We won’t know if Robinson is healthy until he starts playing, and by then it could be too late.
Conclusion
There’s a lot to like about Robinson. He has the potential to return to number-one receiver form, and he won’t turn 25 until August. The offensive-minded coaching staff works in his favor as well.
Though Robinson has a high ceiling, there are plenty of unknown factors that lead to plenty of risk. He’ll be worth the risk as a WR2. That is unless, of course, you love Trubisky. If Trubisky takes the leap, the Robinson as a WR1 talk could be justified.
