The anatomy of the El Camino Real upset starts with the horse himself, Zakaroff, and how he turned the world upside down at Golden Gate.
Last Saturday in the 9-furlong Grade 2 $200,000 prep for the Kentucky Derby, the anatomy of the El Camino Real upset also revolved around his trainer Steve Specht, who has guided some solid stakes winners over the years.
The favorite’s role in the El Camino went to Sheer Flattery but the Jerry Hollendorfer student just had nothing in the tank from the sound of the ball. As expected Ann Arbor Eddie, who was coming off a win in the Cal Cup Derby, was aggressive. He and Tribal Storm set the pace and the pace of the race was moderate at best. That is what makes the anatomy of the El Camino Real upset even more shocking.
It’s more shocking because Zakaroff had to make his own luck. Ann Arbor Eddie went right to the front and was responsible for the :23.95 first quarter. That is a crawling split no matter how you slice it. By the time they went a half mile in :49.05 Tribal Storm was fully engaged. He opened up a half-length lead but was overtaken by his arch rival at the top of the lane. Ann Arbor Eddie, under jockey Mario Gutierrez, dueled from the rail, inched away in mid-stretch but start lugging out and that is almost always the sign of a horse getting tired.
At that point Ann Arbor Eddie caused Tribal Storm to take up and his jockey Abel Cedillo had to stop riding him briefly. By this time, there was no stopping Zakaroff from penning his El Camino Real upset. The son of Slew’s Tiznow was in full flight just a length off the leaders with and eighth of a mile to go and that is when his rider, Kyle Frey, put him to the task.
Frye eased out for room in the stretch and was a half-length in front at the wire. The final time was 1:51.34 on the fast track and Zakaroff earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure.
When the smoke had cleared and the paramedics had done their job, the shocked fans gather themselves to try to comprehend the El Camino Real upset to the tune of 48-1. Ann Arbor Eddie was disqualified from second and placed fourth. That left just the payouts. Zakaroff paid $99.60 and the value in the exotics was the trifecta. The $1 trifecta returned $911.20 with More Power to Him taking second and Tribal Storm weathering the interference to land third.
To say that the El Camino Real upset was predictable is purely ‘Monday morning’ quarterbacking. But there were some things that pointed to a turn around. This was Zakaroff’s third try in a route. He was inching toward the winner in his first try going a route of ground and was just left with too much work to do in his second chance in a route.
Trainer Specht decided a change was needed and he called on Frey and the rider had his mount set to pounce in time. And to be frank, Zakaroff’s trainer was not brimming with confidence: Specht: “They didn’t give me much credit, even though I didn’t finish that far behind some of these horses the last two times. I really thought this race was too far, that one mile or (1 1/16 miles) was his limit. When he got to the stretch, he showed a little extra that I didn’t think he had. I actually entered him in a first-level allowance sprint, but the race didn’t go, so I got stuck running here. Not a bad stick. I wasn’t out of my league, but somebody has to be favored and somebody has to not be.”
It just goes to show; horses can surprise trainers to.
The fact that Zakaroff closed into a mediocre pace could prove important moving forward. He is likely to get faster splits to chase and if there is a pace meltdown, he could thrive again. His ability to rally despite not getting a superior set up, was a big part of the El Camino Real upset.
As far as the pedigree is concerned, Zakaroff could excel with more real estate. His sire was Grade 2 placed and won routing. His dam won at a mile on grass.
If Specht is adventurous, he could send Zakaroff to the Dubai for the UAE Derby at Meydan or he could settle for the Santa Anita Derby in early April.
