The Chicago Bears had one of the worst passing offenses in the league in 2017 as they finished last in passing yards and tied for last in passing touchdowns. They were also last in pass attempts, suggesting this would be a horrendous situation for a receiver no matter how badly he is needed. But things are different in Chicago, and their addition of Anthony Miller of Memphis with the 51st pick was one of the most intriguing selections for fantasy purposes.
With the #51 pick in the 2018 #NFLDraft, we select… Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis.
Welcome to Chicago, Anthony! 🐻⬇️ #BearsDraft pic.twitter.com/0HdbybtDig
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) April 28, 2018
Miller joins Michael Gallup and DJ Moore in the group of rookie receivers who could see starter snaps from day one. That hasn’t meant much in Chicago recently, but things are looking up to the point that Miller is positioned to be draftable in standard leagues.
Reasons to Get Excited
WR2 Spot is Open
Chicago’s signing of Allen Robinson pretty much rules out Miller becoming the Bears’ top target any time soon. But the spot after Robinson is very much up for grabs. Miller’s biggest competition comes in the form of Kevin White, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton. Gabriel is the only one to ever exceed 600 yards in a season, as he put up 621 with the Browns in 2014 and 579 with the Falcons in 2016. Though Miller is likely going to line up in the slot, he could be Mitchell Trubisky’s second-best target.
College Numbers
Miller had a monstrous 2017 season. He finished second in receiving yards (behind James Washington), second in touchdowns and fifth in receptions. He was excellent after the catch, both according to the numbers …
#Bears WR Anthony Miller had the 2nd-most yards after the catch among WRs in the draft class pic.twitter.com/t5OazAwnY4
— PFF CHI Bears (@PFF_Bears) May 21, 2018
… and the tape.
https://twitter.com/SCAR_179NY/status/995690133667155968
Anthony Miller pic.twitter.com/dbrCTEveGt
— Lorin Cox (@CoxSports1) May 22, 2018
He was efficient in all aspects, meaning he’ll be worth a look regardless of your league’s rules.
Improved Chicago Offense
John Fox and his staff, who could be considered most responsible for Chicago’s abysmal passing game, are gone. Taking Fox’s place is Matt Nagy, the former Kansas City offensive coordinator who helped get Alex Smith to the Pro Bowl in each of the last two seasons. Add in another year of experience for Trubisky, the second overall pick in 2016, and Chicago’s offense is poised for a major rebound.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Nagy’s History
On the other hand, Nagy’s offenses didn’t lead to fantasy glory for second receivers. In fact, Tyreek Hill’s 2017 was the only markedly good receiving year under Nagy’s reign. Hill’s breakout 2016 was thanks in large part to rushing and special teams touchdowns. Their receiving game mostly involved Travis Kelce followed by everyone else. In other words, Miller could be heading for Albert Wilson-like numbers. That would put him on the fast track to the waiver wire.
Ball Security
Miller had issues with both drops and fumbles at Memphis. He fumbled five times and could bobble simple throws. These obviously aren’t career-killing, unfixable mistakes. They are, however, the sort of mistakes that will get a player benched. Failing to hold on to the ball will also fail to endear him to his quarterback and coaching staff, potentially sending him into Laquon Treadwell territory.
Level of Competition
Though Miller had gaudy numbers at Memphis, he is a product of the American Athletic Conference. South Florida (28) was the only AAC team in the top 60 in yards allowed per game. The next best were Temple (63) and Houston (83). Only two AAC defensive backs were drafted, as the Vikings picked Mike Hughes of UCF 30th and the Jets took Parry Nickerson of Tulane early in the sixth round.
Furthermore, he managed to play a game against each of the four worst offenses in yards allowed per game. They include UConn, Tulsa, Louisiana-Monroe and East Carolina. Not exactly a sign that he’ll continue to blow up the box score at the next level.
Conclusion
Due to the potential for targets, Miller warrants our attention. He’s probably a tad below Michael Gallup on the rookie wide receiver pecking order but certainly ahead of James Washington in terms of week-to-week floor. View Miller as a high-upside, low-downside WR5 or WR6 to target toward the end of the draft and hope for the best.
