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Arizona Coyotes at Tampa Bay Lightning Free Pick 3/26/18

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Amalie Arena will be hosting a cross-country tilt as the Tampa Bay Lightning take the ice against the visiting Arizona Coyotes. It’s the last time that the two clubs will meet in the regular season. TVA Sports will air the action, which gets going at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 26.

Arizona Coyotes at Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

Tampa Bay (-310) is currently favored over Arizona (+255) and the oddsmakers have put the Over/Under (O/U) at an even 6 goals (-105 for the over, -115 for the under).

The Lightning are 51-24 straight up (SU) and have netted 11.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. That win percentage, ranked first in the league so far in the early season, is a solid improvement compared to how the team performed during the 2016-17 season (42-40). Through 75 regular season contests, 47 of the team’s games have gone over the total, while 27 have gone under and just one has pushed. The team’s 27-10 SU at home this year.

Tampa Bay currently has the second-strongest power-play unit in the NHL, as the team has converted on 24.6 percent of their extra-man advantages this season. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 27th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 76.0 percent of all penalties.

As a collective unit, Tampa Bay has been penalized 4.0 times per game overall this season, 4.0 per game over its last five games total, and 4.2 per game over its last five home outings. The team has been forced to kill penalties for just 8.9 minutes per game over its last 10 outings, overall.

Sporting a .921 save percentage and 29.5 saves per game, Andrei Vasilevskiy (42-19-3) has been the top goalkeeper for the Lightning this season. If head coach Jon Cooper decides to rest him, however, the team may turn to Louis Domingue (6-10-10 record, .890 save percentage, 3.49 goals against average).

Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos will each lead the way for the Lightning. Kucherov (95 points) has produced 37 goals and 58 assists and has recorded two or more points in 30 different games this year. Stamkos has 27 goals and 59 assists to his credit and has recorded a point in 52 contests.

On the other side of the rink, Arizona is 25-50 straight up (SU) and has lost 18.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline thus far. Through 75 regular season contests, 39 of its games have gone under the total, while 35 have gone over and just one has pushed. Arizona’s 10-26 SU as the away team this season.

Arizona has converted on just 17.0 percent of its power play chances this year, a figure that places it in the bottom-10 overall among NHL teams. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 16th overall and it’s successfully killed off 80.5 percent of all opponent power plays.

Arizona’s skaters have been penalized only 3.4 times per game in total this season, and 4.4 per game over their past five outings. The team has been forced to kill penalties 8.8 minutes per game over their last five outings.

Antti Raanta (2.37 goals against average and .926 save percentage) has been the main option in goal for Arizona. Raanta is averaging 27.3 saves per game and owns an 18-24-6 record.

Clayton Keller (22 goals, 37 assists) has been one of the primary playmakers on offense for the visiting Coyotes.

Arizona Coyotes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Predictions

Free Pick: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes

The total has gone under in three of Tampa Bay’s last five outings.

Penalties and power plays could play a critical role in the outcome of this matchup. The Coyotes are 10-21 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 17-35 in games where they serve fewer than 10 total penalty minutes. The Lightning are 25-13 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 29-15 when their penalty minutes are in the single digits.

Two of Tampa Bay’s last ten games have been decided by a shootout. The team is 2-0 in those games and 6-2 overall in shootouts this season.

Tampa Bay is ranked 19th in the league this season with 7.0 takeaways per game. That figure’s trended lower recently, however, as the team has forced 6.4 takeaways over its last 10 games and 6.2 takeaways over its last five.

Arizona is ranked 30th overall this season with 5.3 takeaways per game. That figure has trended upward recently, as it has managed 7.2 takeaways over its last 10 games and 6.8 takeaways over its last five.

Tampa Bay may hold an advantage if it’s a close one late. The team’s 23-10 in games decided by one goal, while Arizona is only 15-21 in such games.

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Written by GMS Previews

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