The Kentucky Derby preps are almost over with just the Grade 1 $1 million Arkansas Derby and the Lexington Stakes set to go on April 15. The Grade 3 Lexington will be run at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby will be showcased at Oaklawn Park.
The last horse to win the Lexington and the Kentucky Derby was Charismatic in 1999. This year it appears there are not many superstars in the race. Only one horse won a stakes. That runner, He’s Munnie, only took a $30,000 stakes at Turf Paradise.
No Dozing at least was Grade 2 placed last year in the Remsen at Aqueduct. No Dozing has been in sleep mode since winning his first two races. He ran fourth to Classic Empire last year but has lost his last three races with no apparent excuse. He has trained solidly for this and posted a best of the morning bullet workout on April 8 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Not one runner in the field has a last-race Beyer Speed Figure higher than 88. The runner that could attract a lot of interest is Bob Baffert’s student West Coast. The son of Flatter will run in blinkers for the first time and he did cost $425,000. West Coast hails from California and he’ll bring speed into the Lexington. The thing for bettors to know is that Baffert doesn’t ship horses to get more frequent flyer miles.
The Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 and this year a $1 million purse will be on the line in the 9-furlong fixture. It has become an important prep for the Kentucky Derby as many winners of this race have won classic races. Arkansas Derby winners Sunny’s Halo and Smarty Jones posted the Arkansas Derby/Kentucky Derby as did Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Rockin Rudy is yet another Doug O’Neill student. O’Neill already watched his runner Irap win the Blue Grass Stakes and this racer looms the speed in this race. He started his career in a maiden claimer and he was second in his only stakes try. This will be his first attempt in a race farther than six and a half furlongs. Backers can point to the fact that there are a couple of successful routers in the family.
Lookin at Lee is another that may have distance limitations. Both of his wins came sprinting at Ellis Park and he has been super dull in his last several route attempts. With his style, this Steve Asmussen trainee is clearly at the mercy of how the race sets up and if he can find a lane to rally into in time. Those that are going to call his number at the betting windows, have to project in their mind a hot and heavy pace. After that, the leaders will have to also fade into the sunset.
Classic Empire is making his second start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. He was bet off the board in his 2017 debut when he failed to win at fifty cents to the dollar in the Grade 2 Holy Bull. He was given time to recoup from that defeat and has trained forwardly for trainer Mark Casse, who is assisted by his son Norman Casse. This runner has only been out of the money once and that came when he lost the rider in the Grade 1 Hopeful last year at Saratoga. Considering he was beaten by Irish War Cry last time, the company he has been keeping is solid. Irish War Cry returned to post a 101 Beyer winning the Wood Memorial on April 8.
Petrov has already repaid his $55,000 purchase price but his only win was in his debut sprinting. He has lost ground in the stretch in the last three races including a defeat by Malagacy.
Silver Dust has to be considered a disappointment so far. He came from third to last to post his only victory and he did not threaten in his stakes attempts.
Grandpa’s Dream just broke his maiden and he was all out to do it by a head.
You have to give Untrapped his props for consistency. He has been in the money in all five starts and has never been out of the money in his Graded attempts.
Sonneteer will be trying to do the same thing Irap accomplished last weekend and that is win a stakes as a maiden. He was second last time to Malagacy at 112-1.
Malagacy puts his unbeaten win streak on the line in the Arkansas Derby. The son of Shackleford won his debut by fifteen lengths and then beat optional claimers by seven lengths. He is another that has tactical speed in this race and he showed it winning the Rebel Stakes. In that prep to the Arkansas Derby, Malagacy didn’t get a breather the entire trip but won going away with a 91 Beyer.
Rowdy the Warrior is an Oklahoma-bred that has been beaten by some of today’s rivals. He will be a huge price.
One Dreamy Dude swings for the fences as he has yet to win a race while Conquest Mo Money is a true Cinderfella Story. He only cost $8,500 and has earned over $300,000. He won this first three races before getting a horrible post last time in the Sunland Derby. He ran second in that race.
Look for the race to unfold with the rail runner, the horse on the extreme outside and Conquest Mo Money vying for the lead. Rockin Rudy has to gun hard from the inside post but until runners are proven routing, there are always questions. Conquest Mo Money could fall into a nice three-hole trip but his class is iffy since he has been racing at Sunland Park.
That leaves Malagacy to overcome his extreme outside post. The way he extended a bit last time suggests he can track Rockin Rudy till the top of the stretch and then pounce. Malagacy gets the call.
With the Derby on the horizon fans should focus on some trends with the future in mind.
Since back in the day, over 60 years ago, just under 80% of the Derby winners had the lead at eighth-pole. Of those eighth-pole leaders, over 90% finished in the trifecta. The only horse to have the lead at the eighth-pole and not finish in the money in the last 60 years was Sea Cadet in 1991, who finished eighth after having to lead with a furlong remaining.
