Offense meets defense when the No. 22 Arkansas Razorbacks (11-2, 1-0 SEC) travel to Mississippi State to take on the Bulldogs (12-1). The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 2, 2018, and will air on SEC Network.
Arkansas opened as a 4-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 154 points.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs ATS Prediction
In the Razorbacks’ last outing, they defeated the No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers, 95-93. The Razorbacks had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.344 (above their season average of 0.255) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.607 (above their season average of 0.571). Jaylen Barford played a pivotal role for Arkansas with 28 points and five rebounds.
The Bulldogs easily got past the North Florida Ospreys in their last contest, 109-81. The Bulldogs had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 55.2 (above their season average of 32.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.669 (above their season average of 0.536). With 18 points, six rebounds and six assists, Mississippi State’s Quinndary Weatherspoon put together a good performance.
It could be a sloppy game for the Mississippi State offense. Mississippi State ranks 275th in the nation in ball protection (turnover percentage of 20.8 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Arkansas forces the 85th-most turnovers in the NCAA (21.3 percent). Also, the 20th-ranked offense of the Razorbacks (offensive efficiency of 118.8) will face off against the ninth-ranked defense of the Bulldogs (defensive efficiency of 88.6).
Arkansas holds records of 11-2 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Razorbacks have a tendency to finish over the O/U total (69.2 percent).
Mississippi State is 12-1 SU, but they are just 2-6 ATS. Contrary to Arkansas, Bulldogs games have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (62.5 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Daryl Macon (15.2 points, 6.2 assists and 2.0 steals) has been fantastic for the Razorbacks while Aric Holman (14.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Bulldogs.
After the Bulldogs won the sole game against the Razorbacks last season, 84-78, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Bulldogs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (44.1 vs. 27.8) and had a much better free throw rate (0.400 vs. 0.254).
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Arkansas, ATS Winner – Arkansas, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Arkansas is 3-2 ATS on the road with 3 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Mississippi State ranks 38th in rebounds per game (39.9) while Arkansas ranks 159th (35.6).
The Bulldogs average 23.2 three pointers per game, which ranks 110th in the NCAA. The Razorbacks rank 206th in three pointers allowed per game (24.2).
Mississippi State ranks 29th in assists allowed per game (10.8) while Arkansas ranks 115th (13.2).
The Bulldogs rank 11th in blocks allowed per game (2.1) while the Razorbacks rank 63rd (2.9).
Arkansas ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (5.0) while Mississippi State ranks 51st (5.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Arkansas is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Razorbacks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 21.0, up from 15.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 77.0 points per game (1.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 63.8 points per game (1.2 above their season average).
