In a battle of two teams that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Chad Morris and the Arkansas Razorbacks (+21) will be taking the field against their conference foe No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. This afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action on ESPN.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Arkansas is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 21 points from oddsmakers. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 46.5 points. There should be some good in-game betting opportunities for this showdown.
The game’s over/under was initially placed at 45.5, but sharp bettors are siding with the over.
The disappointing Razorbacks have lost 12.8 units so far in 2018 and are 6-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 3-6. The Bulldogs have lost 4.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-8.
The Razorbacks are 2-8 straight up (SU), including 0-6 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 6-4 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.
The Razorbacks hope to get back in stride after a 24-17 defeat to LSU last week. The Razorbacks defense allowed the Tigers to run for 164 yards on 48 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. On the offense, Ty Storey completed only 19-of-38 passes for 200 yards, two scores and one interception. The Razorbacks produced a grand total of 16 rushing yards as a team in the defeat.
One week ago, Alabama shut out this Mississippi State crew by a score of 24-0. Nick Fitzgerald completed 11-of-20 passes for 125 yards. Fitzgerald (-23 rushing yards on 14 attempts) spearheaded the running game as Deddrick Thomas (two receptions, 25 yards) and Osirus Mitchell (two catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Arkansas has run the ball on 54.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has a rush percentage of 59.5 percent. The Razorbacks have rushed for 160 yards per game (including 150 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are totaling 212 rushing yards per game (150 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Bulldogs ought to hold an advantage when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Razorbacks have recorded 4.4 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents.
The Razorbacks offensive scheme has averaged 202 yards through the air overall (197 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have put up 181 pass yards per game (122.8 against SEC competition) and have 15 total pass scores.
Arkansas has allowed opponents to run for an average of 155 yards and pass for 253 yards per game. The Mississippi State defense has given up 166.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 114.5 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.45 to opponents, while the Razorbacks have given up a 7.44 ANY/A.
Offensively, Storey is up to 1,183 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 100-of-180 attempts with nine passing scores and six interceptions. Storey has a 5.34 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.46 over the last two outings.
On the other sideline, Nick Fitzgerald has managed to complete 94-of-189 passes for 1,134 yards, six TDs and seven INTs. Fitzgerald’s ANY/A sits at a horrendous 3.79 for the year and 7.05 across his past two outings.
These two squads met a year ago with the final outcome being a 28-21 victory for Mississippi State.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State Bulldogs
SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Arkansas, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Razorbacks offense has created six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for four such plays.
The Arkansas defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Mississippi State has given up two such plays.
The Arkansas offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created 20 such runs.
The Razorbacks defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up six such runs.
The Mississippi State defense has produced 27 sacks on the year while Arkansas has 26.
As a team, Arkansas has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.6 over its last two.
Mississippi State has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
Over its last three matches, Mississippi State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The O/U for Arkansas’ last game going into it was 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 defeat to LSU.
In its last three contests, Arkansas is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Mississippi State’s last matchup was set at 51. The under cashed in the team’s 24-0 loss to Alabama.
Arkansas has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 23-point victory over Tulsa on October 20th accounting for the only win over that span.
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