In a battle featuring two schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Chad Morris and the Arkansas Razorbacks (+21) are gearing up to face off against their in-conference nemesis Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field. The opening kickoff for this game is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET and CBS will televise the action.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Missouri is heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 21 points to Arkansas. If the Tigers get down early it will generate a worthy live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 62 points.
This matchup’s betting odds have moved a hair from when they were initially posted. The opening line was -20 while the game’s over/under was placed originally at 62.5.
The hapless Razorbacks have lost 12.8 units so far and are 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 4-6. The Tigers are up 1.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-5-1 ATS and the over has hit in six of their games.
The Razorbacks have gone 2-9 straight up (SU), including 0-7 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 7-4 SU overall and 3-4 SU in conference play.
Arkansas enters this one on a three-game winning streak while Missouri has come up short in each of its last three. The Razorbacks hope to bounce back after a 52-6 defeat to Mississippi State last week. Ty Storey completed 16-of-27 passes for only 137 yards and one interception. Rakeem Boyd (84 rushing yards on 14 attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Deon Stewart (six receptions, 13 yards) and La’Michael Pettway (four catches, 83 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Missouri is coming off of a 50-17 win over Tennessee. The team’s defense held its ground in the victory, holding the Volunteers to only 173 passing yards and 82 rushing yards. Marquez Callaway had a good outing in the loss for Tennessee, recording 98 yards on two catches. For Missouri, Drew Lock completed 21-of-30 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Larry Rountree III (135 rushing yards on 26 attempts, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win as Johnathon Johnson (seven receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Emanuel Hall (four catches, 74 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Arkansas has run the ball on 53.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Missouri has a rush percentage of 54.9. The Razorbacks have rushed for 152 yards/game (including 138 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 11 scores via handoffs this year. The Tigers are averaging 199 rushing yards per game (188 in conference) and have 24 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Tigers might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 4.7 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Razorbacks have rushed for 4.2 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Razorbacks offense has logged 197 yards per contest in the air overall (191 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing scores so far. The Tigers have recorded 276 pass yards per game (213.1 in the SEC) and have 23 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Arkansas seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 167 yards and pass for 247 yards per game. The Missouri defense has given up 267.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.4 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.38 to opponents, while the Razorbacks have given up a 7.89 ANY/A.
Offensively, Storey is up to 1,360 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 120-of-205 attempts with nine scores through the air and eight interceptions. He’s got a 5.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.41 over the past two games.
We expect the Arkansas offense to mix it up in this one. Rakeem Boyd, La’Michael Pettway and Cheyenne O’Grady have combined for 340 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Drew Lock has connected on 214-of-341 passes for 2,651 yards, 21 TDs and six INTs for Missouri. His ANY/A sits at 7.67 for the year and 7.49 over his last two outings.
We’re looking for the Tigers to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Johnathon Johnson (466 receiving yards, four TDs this season) has chipped in lately, but Larry Rountree III (801 rush yards, 10 rush TDs) and Damarea Crockett (587 rush yards, six rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the Missouri offense.
When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Missouri won by a field goal 48-45.
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Notes
Betting Notes
The O/U for Arkansas’ previous game going into it was 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-6 loss to Mississippi State.
Arkansas has produced 3.5 yards per carry over its past three games and 1.6 over its last two.
Missouri has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
Missouri has lost five fumbles this season while Arkansas has lost seven.
Over its last three contests, Arkansas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Arkansas has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a 23-point win over Tulsa on October 20th accounting for the only victory over that span.
The O/U for Missouri’s last matchup was set at 57.5. The over cashed in the 50-17 victory over Tennessee.
In its last three games, Missouri is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Razorbacks offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have put up 14 such plays.
The Arkansas defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Missouri has given up 17 such plays.
Both teams have produced 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Arkansas offense has recorded 58 running plays of 10+ yards while Missouri has accounted for 54 such plays.
The Razorbacks defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up 12 such runs.
The Arkansas defense has sacked opposing QBs 26 times this year. Missouri has registered just 19 sacks.
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