Sun Belt foes will collide when the Texas State Bobcats (8-7) challenge the Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-9) at Strahan Coliseum. The game starts at 5:30 pm ET on Saturday, Jan. 23.
The Bobcats lost a close one to Little Rock 77-74 on Thursday. Ethan Montalvo was the game’s leading scorer with 28 points. The Red Wolves, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their deflating 91-64 loss against UT Arlington on Thursday. Devin Carter had a good shooting night, leading the game with 34 points.
Carter has been on fire over the last five games for the Red Wolves, averaging 22.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2.8 three-pointers.
It’s a matchup of two different tempos, as the fast-paced Red Wolves (ranked 18th in the nation in possessions per game) square off against the grind-it-out Bobcats (306th).
Texas State is a three-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 137 points. The Bobcats are looking to build on their records of 8-7 Straight Up (SU) and 5-4 Against The Spread (ATS). It’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Bobcats. The 61.8 points that Texas State’s defense allows per game makes them the 11th-ranked defense in the country. Texas State’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation, allowing just 5.0 three-pointers per game.
On the other side, the Red Wolves have 9-9 SU and 7-6 ATS records. The Red Wolves have controlled the glass with an average of 41.6 rebounds per game, 21st in the country. Arkansas State’s defense is one of the top in the nation, with opponents shooting only .382 from the field.
The conference foes meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Texas State won the last game in the matchup, but the win was not enough to overtake Arkansas State in the head-to-head series. Its record is now 1-3 SU. At 2-2, they are even ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – TxSt, ATS Winner – ArkSt, O/U – Under
Notes
Texas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas State’s last 6 games.
Arkansas State sits at 5-2 SU against the conference, while Texas State is 2-4 SU.
Texas State has allowed an average of 57.9 points per home game this season. Arkansas State averages 74.4 points per away game, ranking 75th in scoring.
The Texas State Bobcats have a defensive rating of 93.0 (ranked 18th), while the Arkansas State Red Wolves have an offensive rating of 102.3 (ranked 246th).
The Texas State Bobcats average a field goal percentage of 43.0% this season. The Arkansas State Red Wolves have a losing record of 1-3 when opponents have a FG% of 43.0% or greater.
The Texas State Bobcats and the Arkansas State Red Wolves both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Texas State is 289th and 232nd in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Arkansas State ranks 294th and 245th in these categories.
Arkansas State, the 59th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.7 per game. Texas State does worse, ranked 189th with 3.3.
Arkansas State is one of the top defensive rebounding teams, ranking third. Texas State ranks 88th in offensive rebounding.
Arkansas State averages a forced turnover rate of 16.9% this season. Texas State has a 6-4 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
