The SBC’s third-leading passer, Garrett Smith (2,013 yards, 17 TDs), will be on display when the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Warhawks are 1-8, while the Red Wolves have a 6-3 record this season. The game kicks off Saturday, Nov 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET and will be shown on ESP3.
In last week’s matchup, Louisiana-Monroe struggled mightily against Troy 51-14. Marcus Green had a huge game in the loss, grabbing 12 passes for 149 yards and one TD. Arkansas State is hoping for another victory like last week’s performance, when it defeated Appalachian State 40-27. Dijon Paschal had an outstanding performance for the Red Wolves, totaling four catches for 117 yards. Fredi Knighten also had a big game with 208 yards and a TD through the air.
The Warhawks, a 12-point underdog, will be looking to defend their home field when Arkansas State comes to town. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 60 points.
Heading into Week 11 of the college football season, the Warhawks are 1-8 Straight Up (SU) and 3-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Louisiana-Monroe is 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. Louisiana-Monroe has made opposing defenses pay lately, averaging 115.8 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks, higher than its season average of 98.
In the other locker room, the Red Wolves have a record of 5-4 ATS and 6-3 SU. The Red Wolves went 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. Arkansas State has made opposing defenses pay lately, averaging 44 points per game over the last five games. This improved stretch brought its season average to 36.2 PPG. Arkansas State has found a lot of success on the ground. Its 233.4 rushing yards per game ranks 14th in Division I. Switching gears to the Arkansas State defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. Stopping the run doesn’t have to be Arkansas State’s first priority. Louisiana-Monroe ranks 123rd in the nation with an average of 98 rushing yards per game. The Arkansas State defense will take advantage of every opportunity the Warhawks give it. The Red Wolves generate 2.4 turnovers per game, sixth in the country. Teams need to stay focused in the first quarter against the fast-starting Red Wolves, who average 9.1 points in the first 15 minutes. Arkansas State has put in some strong special teams performances this season. The team has averaged 144 return yards per game, ranking them third in the nation.
Predictions: SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Over
Notes
Louisiana-Monroe is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
Louisiana-Monroe is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Louisiana-Monroe is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home.
Louisiana-Monroe is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Louisiana-Monroe is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas State.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Monroe’s last 6 games when playing at home against Arkansas State.
Arkansas State is 4-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 SU when leading after three quarters.
Louisiana-Monroe is winless (0-7 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 1-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
According to overall FBS team rankings, Arkansas State is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 14th-ranked rushing attack will face the 118th-ranked run defense of Louisiana-Monroe, while its 44th-ranked run defense will look to contain the 123rd-ranked rushing game of the Warhawks.
