The Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-3) travel to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (3-7) this week in a contest between two teams seeking to add to their respective winning streaks. Both teams are playing well, with the Aggies having won three in a row and the Red Wolves having won six. The country’s fifth-leading rusher, Larry Rose III (1,477 yards, 12 TDs), will be featured in this game for New Mexico State. It kicks off Saturday, Nov 28 at 4:00 p.m. ET and will be shown on ESP3.
In last week’s matchup, New Mexico State got a close victory over Louisiana-Lafayette 37-34. Andrew Allen had a good performance, putting up 30 total yards. He gained most of his yards on the ground, putting up 30 yards. Gregory Hogan also had a great game with 84 receiving yards and two TDs on three catches. Arkansas State was victorious in its game before the bye as well, smashing Louisiana-Monroe 59-21. Tres Houston had a huge game for the Red Wolves, pulling in three receptions for 94 yards and three TDs. Fredi Knighten had a great game as well, adding 300 yards and five TDs through the air.
The Red Wolves are favored by 17 points against the Aggies this week and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently not available.
Sitting at 3-7 Straight Up (SU) and 5-5 Against The Spread (ATS), the Aggies will look to improve heading into Week 13. In their five most recent matchups, the Aggies went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. The New Mexico State running game is averaging 229.2 rushing yards during its last five matchups. As for the New Mexico State defense, a few key matchups could decide this game. If the Red Wolves want to win this game, they will have to keep New Mexico State from taking the ball away. The Aggies have the 23rd-most fumbles recovered per game in the nation with 0.9. On average, the Red Wolves earn 7.8 flags each game, one of the worst rates in the nation. Such errors could be beneficial for the Aggies if they persist into this week’s game.
As for their opponent, the Red Wolves head into Week 13 with records of 6-4 ATS and 7-3 SU. Over their last five games, the Red Wolves have a SU record of 5-0 and a 4-1 record ATS for those betting with them. Arkansas State has made opposing defenses pay lately, averaging 46 points per game over the last five games. This improved stretch brought its season average to 38.5 PPG. Chances are Arkansas State will continue to rely on its run game, where its 224.9 rushing yards per game ranks 20th in the nation. Moving on to the Arkansas State defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. Arkansas State’s passing defense, only allowing 51.0% of passes to be completed, has a good chance of shutting down its competitor’s aerial attack. The Aggies will need to be mindful of Arkansas State’s ability to take the ball away. The Red Wolves defense averages 2.7 turnovers per game, the most of any team in the country. It might not be too hard for the Red Wolves to start fast this week with New Mexico State’s defense allowing 10.9 points in the first quarter. The Red Wolves may have no trouble keeping New Mexico State’s offense off the field. This season, the Aggies have had an average time of possession of 29:28 per game, ranking them 85th in the country.
Predictions: SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State
Notes
New Mexico State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games.
New Mexico State is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Mexico State’s last 11 games.
New Mexico State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home.
New Mexico State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas State.
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. New Mexico State is 2-1 SU when leading after three quarters.
New Mexico State is winless (0-2 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 2-3 SU when losing the turnover battle.
