Arkansas and Texas A&M highlight the 73rd playing of the Southwest Classic this Saturday, when the two meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX at 9 p.m ET. With equal 3 – 0 records entering the fourth weekend of the NCAA football season, keeping pace with Alabama in the SEC West makes this a pivotal match for positioning come bowl season.
The early line reads Texas A&M favored by -6, with the over/under total set at 49.5.
Arkansas:
The 17th-ranked Hogs open SEC play this weekend, and it will not get any easier right away. After a home game with Alcorn State, Arkansas will host Alabama and Ole Miss on back-to-back weekends, completing a five-game home stand that runs through October 15.
Arkansas has won both previous home games to start the year, although it almost did not start accordingly. Pig Suey were -21 point favorites to open the 2016/17 campaign at home, and LA Tech came to town with different ideas. With six minutes and change left in the 4th quarter, Jeremy Sprinkle snatched a 4-yard pass from Austin Allen to seal the win 21 – 20.
The Arkansas ground game that was supposedly going to be counted on this year, came out flat to open the season. With only 106 yards on 40 carries, more questions than answers appeared in the video room after the day was done.
The emergence of sophomore Rawleigh Williams III out of the back field has caught some by surprise, after Kody Walker was expected to be the guy carrying the load. Williams III has accumulated 354 yards and 3 TDs through three games, blowing last years stats away, as he only gained 254 yards with 1 TD in his freshman season.
The big win so far this season came at TCU in week two, after a 41 – 38 affair ended with a defensive stand to start double OT. The Hogs defense held the Frogs to a field goal in the second OT, and Arkansas found pay dirt with the legs of Austin Allen, who scampered for a 5 yard score to end the night.
With a relative ‘practice’ last weekend against Texas State to advance to 3 – 0, Arkansas faces their biggest test of the season, and the line setters reveal that they deserve to be +6 dogs in the contest.
Razorback QB Austin Allen has officially come out of the shadow his brother Brandon, and a big road win would bode well for bragging rights, since his brother never beat A&M in three attempts of his own.
Texas A&M:
Texas A&M enters the weekend ranked 10th in the nation, and keep in mind that many outlets predicted that the Aggies would be among the bottom-feeders of the SEC West this season. That, however, changed a bit when Trevor Knight was granted eligibility, giving fifth-year head man Kevin Sumlin yet another QB to take under his wing. However, things turned out with Johnny Football, remember what Manziel did in college, and know that Sumlin has something to do with his success.
Now first year OC Noel Mazzone has a top-grade QB with experience to work with, and it has paid off early. The Aggies have put up 127 points through the first three games of the season, and they have not been playing cupcakes. A big win over UCLA to open the season carried over to an easy 67 – 0 win over Prairie View A&M two weeks ago. Last time out, A&M had to travel to Auburn as 1 point underdogs, and came away with a comfortable 29 – 16 win to stretch to 3 – 0.
Mazzone has run UCLA and Ole Miss offenses in his heyday, and he has every intention of keeping the playbook open to create more ways to confuse defenses.
Of course it didn’t hurt that all four starting wideouts decided to return to College Station to help Trevor Knight find some open targets, and last weekend we saw only five receivers involved in the Auburn game.
Notes:
Arkansas is 6 – 1 in their last 7 conference games dating back to last season.
Under is 5 – 1 in the Hogs last 6 September games, while the Under is 9 – 3 in their last 12 conference games.
The Aggies are only 2 – 5 in their last 7 conference games dating back to last year.
The Under is a perfect 8 – 0 in the Aggies last 8 games.
Fun Facts:
Since the joined the SEC West in 2012, Texas A&M is 4 – 0 against Arkansas.
Arkansas leads the all-time series 41- 28 – 3, with their best streak of wins between them coming from 1958 – 66 (9). Also during that run and a little beyond, the Hogs won seven straight in College Station from 1958 to 1970.
The term ‘Southwest Classic’ was originated in 2009, that came with an agreement to play the game at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. When the two played their first seasons in the SEC in 2012, they played one home game each in 2012 and 2013, before returning back to Cowboys Stadium where the game will remain until at least 2024.
Game Prediction:
We turn to the total in this game, with a 49 – 50 number on the over/under, depending on your book and the time you see the action on your board. Play the Over regardless of the number, because these two should have an absolute field day against each other, with points accumulating in to the 60s.
With a prediction of 33 – 30 with a close game in mind, we see enough offensive talent to expect a high-scoring affair.
Play the Over 49.5.
