Some of the best on the PGA Tour will make their way to the Bay Hill Club & Lounge in Orlando, Florida this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Matt Every is the two-time defending tournament champion, but he will be in tough to make it three in a row with Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson all competing for the top prize this weekend. However, there are some notable absences this week as Rickie Fowler won’t be there, Hall of Famer Phil Mickelson is passing, Bubba Watson has pulled out (back injury) and world No. 1 Jordan Spieth won’t be participating too.
Event Details
Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Category: PGA
Date: March 17-20
Location: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida
The fact that Every has won the last two Arnold Palmer Invitational tournaments is pretty surprising and the sportsbook agree that he isn’t likely to do it a third year in a row. Every is listed at +9000 odds to win this tournament outright with McIlroy listed as the favorite at +550 odds.
Past Five Winners
2015 – Matt Every -19
2014 – Matt Every -13
2013 – Tiger Woods -13
2012 – Tiger Woods -13
2011 – Martin Laird -8
What To Know About The Course
A major renovation in 2010 led to the Bay Hill course moving back to a par 72 and how golfers have performed on the long holes has been among the biggest keys to success ever since. Martin Laird and Tiger Woods ranked first in Par 5 scoring in each of their three combined wins here from 2012 through 2014. The top performers must also be able to handle the Bermuda greens and the windy conditions that can really have an impact when they pick up. Since 2009, every winner except one has made more birdies than anybody else so average birdie score will matter a lot this week as well.
The Field
McIlroy is listed as the outright betting favorite at +550 odds and it wouldn’t shock anybody if this was the week when he finally broke through and got the win. Every and Tiger have combined for the last four wins at this tournament but Tiger is out and the odds are stacked against Every winning for the third year in a row. Many thought that Adam Scott should have won this tournament in 2014 but he faded down the stretch following a strong start and eventually settled for third. Scott is listed at +800 odds to win this week – second only behind McIlroy. Scott is followed by Stenson at +1200, Jason Day at +1400 and Justin Rose at +1600 odds.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Henrik Stenson over Jason Day
Stenson shot a 66 in the second and third rounds here a year ago on the way to a solo second at 18-under and there is every reason to think he can perform at a high level again here this year. He is coming off an 11th place finish at the Valspar Championship and has already posted a pair of top-15 finishes in four PGA Tour events while placing in the top-10 in each of his three appearance on the European Tour this season. Meanwhile, Day has struggled early on this year and that isn’t a surprise based on how he finished last season. Day could bounce back with a strong tournament this week but don’t expect him to post a better score than Stenson, who is a strong bet to win outright.
Top Five Prediction: Adam Scott
The second favorite has everything that would be required of a winner at this tournament including the range and experience to conquer this course. Scott couldn’t beat out Bubba Watson as Riviera but he earned wins at the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship and suddenly he is looking for the hat trick. Scott nearly won this event before settling for third in 2014 but we like him to contend for the outright win as a lock to place in the top-five at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Top 10 Odds To Win Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rory McIlroy +605
Adam Scott +805
Henrik Stenson +1050
Jason Day +1250
Justin Rose +1550
Hideki Matsuyama +2250
Ryan Moore +3050
Matt Kuchar +3250
Harris English +4050
Brandt Snedeker +4550
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