It’s Wednesday Night Rivalry, which means there are only three games on the schedule for tonight. Let’s take a look around the NHL for the top picks, plays and predictions.
| Senators vs Red Wings ML +144 / -160 O/U 5.5 |
Rangers vs Penguins ML OFF / OFF O/U OFF |
| Canucks vs Coyotes ML +112 / -124 O/U 5.5 |
Play of the Day: Senators over Red Wings.
The Ottawa Senators will be trying out the new toys today after a whopping nine-player trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, headlined by Dion Phaneuf.
Phaneuf is actually having an okay year, finishing up his time in Toronto with three goals and 21 assists this season. His 5v5 Corsi is over the 50% mark for the first time since 2009-2010 when he was dealt to the Maple Leafs from Calgary. He is scoring at a .8 points/60 rate, which ties the best mark of his Toronto career.
The major win for Toronto comes in the form of Phaneuf’s contract, which they no longer have any obligation to whatsoever. Ottawa will be taking it on in full.
Phaneuf will be sliding into the top pairing for the Senators right alongside Erik Karlsson. There is reason for cautious optimism with this move. Phaneuf does have a decent eye, though his shooting has taken a massive nosedive. Considering his possession numbers are the best they’ve been in years, the move could be great for him. Conversely, the pessimist would say that he’s been a possession anchor for years and he may be a hinderance to one of the best offensive defenseman in the league.
With any trade and change of scenery, Phaneuf and the Senators deserve a little bit of time to adjust.
One area Phaneuf may be able to make a more immediate impact is the penalty kill. Ottawa’s is the worst in the league. Detroit has scored four powerplay goals in their last three games. There could be a noticeable difference in these coming games.
Prediction: The Sens have taken down Toronto and Tampa by a combined score of 11-2. This trade may give them a little more of a spark. Detroit is a tough customer but beatable. Take Ottawa to win at +144. Play the under. Petr Mrazek won’t be allowing much tonight.
The Game to Watch: Rangers vs Penguins.
Per the usual, the Wednesday Night Rivalry wins the “Game to Watch” category by default. The Rangers and Penguins have four games to play against each other over the next two months, tonight included.
Sidney Crosby is heating up at the right time for Pittsburgh. He has scored in each of his last seven games, a career best. He is on an 11-game point streak, in which he has 12 goals and 10 assists. Not too shabby. Kris Letang has also been hot, collecting 24 points in his last 15 games.
Rick Nash remains out for the Rangers, though head coach Alain Vigneault indicated that he was feeling “better.” He will be kept out of the lineup for presumably at least a few more games as a precautionary measure. In his stead, J.T. Miller has picked up the scoring slack. Miller has nine goals in 10 games.
Ryan McDonagh will be sitting out with a concussion as well, as he will for the foreseeable future.
It’s no secret at this point that possession is a major concern for the Rangers this season. It is one of many, but it seems to be at the root of several other issues. After a laughably bad first half of the season, the Blueshirts have improved on their possession play at least a little bit. They have out-attempted their opponent at 5v5 in three of their last four games.
Even that improvement comes with a bit of an asterisk, though. Two of those three games were against New Jersey, the second-worst 5v5 shot generators in the National Hockey League. New York lost the first game 3-2 thanks to a nightmarish game from their special teams units, then won the second game 2-1 in a more dominant fashion save for the last five minutes. The other game was against Minnesota, where the shot advantage gap did not widen until the Rangers were already down 2-0. Wild forwards had just one shot on goal through two periods, but all the same, score effects did play a huge part in that.
In the game where they were outshot, it took until the final 12 seconds for them to send the game to overtime. The Rangers dominated the third 11-1 in shots, but were manhandled in the second 20-8. Simply, the Rangers are going to have their legitimacy tested tonight, and they will have to do it shorthanded.
While the Rangers have three wins in a row for the first time since November, and while their play is indicating a much more sustainable winning formula than the one they were exemplifying around that same time, they have a long way to go. Minnesota and New Jersey are in the bottom 10 in team 5v5 Corsi percentages. Pittsburgh is 9th in the league at 51.6%.
Evgeni Malkin will be out for at least three more games for the Penguins. Matt Cullen will remain on the second line with Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel.
A lot of things are working in Pittsburgh’s favor. The Rangers are 9-11-2 in Henrik Lundqvist’s road starts this season, while the Pens are 8-0-2 in their last 10 at home. The Penguins have a red-hot top six even without Evgeni Malkin. The Rangers are noticeably weaker on both the penalty kill and the powerplay without Nash and McDonagh.
Last game, Dan Girardi was on the top pairing with Keith Yandle on the man advantage. It was an incoherent mess laden with poor decision making on both players’ accounts that led to, well, this.
For what it’s worth, Yandle played a season-high 25 minutes including eight on the powerplay. Excluding that pass, it was a terrific game out of him.
Prediction: Discipline will be key in this game. The Rangers need to stay out of the box. New York will be in for a rude awakening when they find they don’t have the puck as much anymore. Take Pittsburgh to win.
Other Game Notes Around the NHL
Canucks vs Coyotes: The runner-up for “play of the day” today is the under in this game. Vegas has set a 5.5 over/under for a pair of teams that don’t score much when they meet. The under is 8-1 in their last nine games in Arizona, 4-1 in their last five meetings overall. It is also 8-2-8 in the last 18 for Vancouver overall.
Ordinarily a 5 over/under is the tricky play with Vancouver. The Canucks have been to overtime 19 times this season, so their schedule is packed with 3-2 pushes. In this game, the under is the safe and smart play.
The only reason the over is 4-0 in the last four for the Coyotes is because of their opponents, which include Chicago, Los Angeles and the red-hot Ducks. Against the Canucks, the over does not seem terribly likely.
Prediction: Take the Cancucks to win at +112. Take the stone-cold under.
