Happy Sunday everyone. Hope you didn’t get your total fix of games yesterday, because there’s seven more on the slate throughout the day today. Let’s go around the NHL at the top picks, plays and predictions.
| Hurricanes vs Penguins ML +144 / -160 O/U 5 |
Canucks vs Islanders ML +157 / -174 O/U 5 |
| Panthers vs Lightning ML +127 / -140 O/U 5 |
Rangers vs Capitals ML +150 / -170 O/U 5 |
| Canadiens vs Blackhawks ML +165 / -185 O/U 5 |
Flyers vs Red Wings ML +140 / -155 O/U 5 |
| Kings vs Ducks ML -110 / -110 O/U 5 |
Play of the Day: Hurricanes over Penguins.
Making a trade when there is a game to be played the following day is a very tricky task in the NHL. Perhaps more than any other sport, a player cannot simply be thrown into a new environment and be expected to succeed right off the bat. There is a new system to be learned, new linemates to establish chemistry with. Some players like Ryan Johansen are exceptions to the rule because of their natural ability. Other players like Martin St. Louis in 2014 struggle mightily upon arrival of a new team.
The Penguins made a trade early Saturday morning to send disappointing winger David Perron and Adam Clendening to Anaheim for Carl Hagelin.
This trade is very interesting for the Penguins. The Ducks are able to add someone with a better scoring touch than Hagelin and clear some cap space in the process. Perron hasn’t scored in 19 games, but his raw career numbers show that he has the capability to score. Hagelin comes with a pretty hefty $4 million cap hit for four years. That’s a lot for a player who is best suited for the third line.
Hagelin has only 12 points on the year, but is scoring at 1.3 points/60 minutes, which is only a few decimal points off his career average. He currently has the best Corsi of his career at 5v5 at 54.4%, a monstrous number. Haggy’s ability on the forecheck and his incredible speed go without saying.
Hagelin could be exactly what Pittsburgh needs. They were middle of the road in scoring, possession and could use a pesky player like him to dominate the neutral zone. The only thing is that Hagelin is a system player. He needs time to acclimate to what is his third career stop so he can be properly utilized. He will be very effective in Pittsburgh, but players like him are not naturally gifted enough offensively to come in and make an immediate impact like Ryan Johansen.
Prediction: The Canes will capitalize on a team not being at 100% coherence with a new player like they did against the Blue Jackets and Seth Jones. Take Carolina to win at +144. I’m calling a push in this game on the over/under, 3-2 final score.
The Game to Watch: Panthers vs Lightning.
The Battle for Florida has playoff stakes tied to it now. The Panthers are holding on to a four point lead in the Atlantic after dropping their last two games in Western Canada. This will be the Cats’ last road game before a four-game home stand.
Tampa Bay got off to a very disappointing start, but have been surging ever since Ondrej Palat returned to their lineup. The Bolts can pull to within five points of the Panthers with a victory. They’ve won four in a row to pull even with the Canadiens for the top Wild Card spot.
The timing of this game may prove to be problematic for the Panthers. They let a two goal lead slip through their fingers in a tumultuous game against the Canucks. Florida followed that up with a 6-0 drumming at the hands of the Calgary Flames. The ultimate question now becomes how legitimate was their 12 game winning streak? Twelve wins is not an accident. But by the same token, the Panthers have a 47.4% team Corsi rating, which ranks sixth-worst in the league tied with Columbus and the Rangers. That’s not good company to keep: the worst team in the league and a team that went on a nine-game win streak in November then exploded upon reentry to the atmosphere.
The Lightning have a team Corsi of 52%, putting them in the top 10 in the league. With the exception of their last game against Pittsburgh, they have dominated the pace of play lately. They are scoring more frequently as a result.
Prediction: The Lightning are favored at -140 to the Panthers’ +127 with an over/under of 5. Take the Lightning to win, and take the over.
Other Game Notes Around the NHL
Canucks vs Islanders: The Islanders have roared to life during their homestand this past week. Brock Nelson in particular has been white-hot, tallying a hat trick against Columbus and another against the Rangers, both victories. Thirteen of Nelson’s 18 goals this season have come on home ice, which spells trouble for the Canucks. The Isles are 9-0-1 in their last 10 against the Western Conference at home, too.
The line has the Islanders as heavy favorites heading into this game, as they should. The Isles average over 3 goals per game at home, while Vancouver only averages 2.29 on the road. Brooklyn has also seen only one powerplay goal scored against the Islanders in the last 36 attempts on home ice.
Prediction: Take the Isles to win. With an over/under of only 5, take the over.
Rangers vs Capitals: Remember when I said yesterday that it would be pretty lame and anti-climactic if Braden Holtby’s regulation-unbeaten streak came to an end against Buffalo of all teams? That should have been a clear sign that of course the Sabres would cruise to a 4-1 victory over the Caps. Why not.
Holtby was actually pulled less than halfway through the game last night. It remains to be seen at present whether Holtby will get the start again today against the Rangers or whether it will be Philip Grubauer. It has already been confirmed that the Rangers will be starting Antti Raanta for the first time since December 28th. Raanta had been hit high with a shot that forced him out of the lineup for a while.
The Rangers as a team are shooting 9.6% at 5v5, which is almost a full percent above the next highest team. It should be noted 9.6% is the best in the league. They can put points on the board but it covers up the fact that they have major weaknesses in the shot department they refuse to address. Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello have been especially poor in the shot ratio department.
Facing a backup goaltender would be huge for the Rangers. It took them a long time through their meeting with the Capitals a week ago for the energy to perk up. An early goal against a netminder that does not play very frequently would be a huge lift to morale. It’s not unlike a kid on a sugar rush- they look much more alive after they’ve had candy/goals. Their confidence early in games appears to have waned.
Prediction: Assuming Grubauer plays for the Capitals, put the Rangers down for a win today. They wouldn’t want to lose in front of their mothers as they travel with them this road trip.
Canadiens vs Blackhawks: The Montreal locker room can’t be a very fun place to be right now. They dropped yet another game last night, this time against the Blues in overtime. For the second consecutive game the Habs got over 40 shots on goal (49 to be exact) and come away with the L. At least they got a point for their trouble this time.
Their goaltending has been weak, their defense has been inadequate, and they aren’t burying their chances. Even though they are one of the best possession teams in the league, they continue to slip and side down the standings. The law of averages says they will bounce back at some point. That point will presumably be when Carey Price comes back sometime in February.
Until then, Ben Scrivens will likely be getting the start against the Blackhawks. The Hawks beat the Canadiens just two games ago, 2-1.
Prediction: Fun fact, the Blackhawks have not lost since I began working here at GetMoreSports.com. I’m not saying I’m the reason for their success, but I’m not not saying it. Take Chicago for the win.
Flyers vs Red Wings: This will be another game involving the Red Wings and a goalie duel. Last game was a test of the mettle between Petr Mrazek and Louis Domingue on Arizona. This time, Mrazek will be going up against Michal Neuvirth. Neuvirth is 9-5-2 on the year with a 2.12 goals against average and a .934 save percentage. Neuvirth has played considerably better at home than on the road, which could pose a problem.
The Flyers got the loser point after falling to the Rangers in the skill competition last night.
“Mrazzle Dazzle” has been very good at home, but excels most when given rest. When given two days rest, Mrazek is 3-1 with a .950 save percentage and a 1.48 goals against average.
Prediction: The Flyers could very well give the Red Wings a fight tonight, and the +140 money line attached to them is tempting. The back-to-back factor weighs heavily in this scenario against a well rested team. Take the Wings at -155, and take the under 5.
Kings vs Ducks: The Ducks will be trying out their new toy David Perron tonight against the Kings. Perron bombed pretty hard in Pittsburgh given the expectations were high for the winger. He had just 38 points in 86 games in a Penguins uniform. He has not scored in 19 games. It is a cap-saving move for the Ducks to try and slide Perron in on Ryan Kesler’s line instead of Hagelin. But trying to rejuvenate the offense by bringing in an inferior possession player who is ice-cold as is? That’s a bold strategy.
Kesler had been clicking lately. He has four points in his last four games. Losing Hagelin could throw him off a little in the first game with the new meat.
The Kings blew a 3-1 lead to the Senators last night to lose 5-3.
Predicion: Take the Kings. I never like plays on a team that has their first game with a new player in a big role.
