In recent months, this London derby has become somewhat of a regular fixture, with both teams clashing heads just 2 weeks ago in Beijing for the ICC cup, when Chelsea battered their opponents with two goals scored by Michy Batshuayi, although Arsenal had fielded a more experimental side. However, when it counted in the FA Cup final back in May, it was Arsenal that triumphed in a famous 2:1 win against their local rivals.
Following last season, both teams will come out onto the pitch keen to make a statement of intent, as Arsenal looks to recover from missing out on Champions League football, while Chelsea will want to show that they are prepared for a title-defense.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea
3-Way: 1: Arsenal +240; X: +261 Draw; 2: Chelsea +129
Spread +0.5: Arsenal -137; Chelsea +129
Total +2.5: Over -118; +114
Arsenal
The Arsenal team had a disappointing season as they missed out on a Champions League spot, the first time they won’t be taking part for 17 years, as they finished 5th by a margin of one point. Further misery was inflicted on the Gunners as their 5th place finish also meant that St. Totteringham’s Day, the moment in a Premier League season where Tottenham can no longer possibly finish above Arsenal, was cancelled for the first time since 1995 as a result of Spurs finishing 2nd in the league. It could be said that Arsenal were unfortunate, as a 75 points total was the most for a team finishing fifth during the Premier League era, and not even Alexis Sanchez, who had his best season in an Arsenal shirt, could save face for Arsenal despite scoring 30 goals in all competitions.
An unusually inconsistent season was due to a difficult period in Arsenal’s history. Murmurs of ‘Wenger Out’ had already existed throughout their long Premier League trophy drought since 2004, but after poor form hit Arsenal after the new year, murmurs turned into a full-blown protest while splitting their fans into two camps, those who wanted Wenger to stay and those who wanted him to leave. These outside pressures translated to the pitch towards the mid-point of the season, as players looked dumbfounded and a shadow of their former selves while they were defeated in 4 away games consecutively. Luckily for Arsenal, manager Arsene Wenger revitalized his side through a system change from a 4-3-2-1 to a modern 3-4-2-1, with Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey forming a pivotal partnership in midfield as the new system allowed them more freedom. Furthermore, a reinvigorated Arsenal found hit their stride at the right time coming up to the FA cup final against Chelsea, as a fantastic performance saw them lift the trophy winning 2:1 convincingly, finishing the season on a high.
As it stands, Arsenal has had a positive transfer window signing two top-quality first team players, namely the powerful wing-back Sead Kolasinac from FC Schalke 04 and deadly-finisher Alexandre Lacazette from Olympique Lyon in a club record €53 million deal. The only notable exit was keeper Wojciech Szczesny to Juventus for €12.2 million.
The main worry over the summer for Arsenal has been their contracts situation, with a total of eight players with just a year left on their contract, including star players Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. The positive news is that both players look odds on to be staying for the next season, but whether they will sign the dotted line to extend their year stay is another matter. Over the summer Arsenal had a mixed pre-season with three wins, including beating Bayern Munich on penalties, but losing twice, including a 3:0 loss to Sunday’s opponents Chelsea.
Arsene Wenger will be missing Santi Cazorla (ankle surgery), Gabriel Paulista (knee) and Joel Campbell (wound) through injury. Meanwhile Jack Wilshere and Alexis Sanchez are doubtful for Sunday’s game.
Chelsea
The Blues recovered from a terrible 2015-16 season title-defense when they finished 10th in the league to reclaim the Premier League trophy last season. Tactical magician Antonio Conte became Chelsea’s new manager and quickly became a revelation while he introduced a new system to the Premier League with an unusual 3-man defense line, and a system that has become a blueprint for many English sides after 4-2-3-1 passed its expiry date. Despite a shaky start, Chelsea spring-boarded themselves to the top of the league after a thirteen-game win-streak and already looked like champions before the end of 2016, spending a total of 184 days at the top to the table.
One reason for Chelsea’s success in the Premier League were the signings made; N’Golo Kanté ran the park in every game as he repeated his sensational Leicester performances, and David Luiz returned to Chelsea as a more composed and commanding defender. Furthermore, previous Chelsea players such as Eden Hazard recovered from a poor 2015-16 season and bulldoggish Diego Costa contributed 22 goals as he finished the season as Chelsea’s top scorer. Other reasons include Antonio Conte’s tactical change which rejuvenated a group of players that all looked past their prime, and the fact that they had no European football which produced a less congested fixture list, allowing Conte’s men long resting times. Despite these encouraging changes, Chelsea were unable to make it count in the FA cup final in which they appeared sluggish and as though their minds were already on their holidays in the sun. Chelsea will be keen to make amends by beating Arsenal on Sunday.
Despite early rumblings of dissatisfaction with transfer misdemeanors such as missing out on Romelu Lukaku, the Diego Costa debacle and an unhappy Conte, still Chelsea have arrived in August with more clarity. Instead of Lukaku, Chelsea made an equally exciting signing in striker Alvaro Morata who came from Real Madrid for over €65 million.
Furthermore, Diego Costa looks set to leave and Conte has signed a new contract at Chelsea quashing rumors of his departure. Also joining were ball-winning midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko from Monaco and tough centre-back Antonio Rudiger from Roma. Notable departures include midfielder Nemanja Matic to Manchester United for €44.70 million and centre-back Nathan Aké to Bournemouth for nearly €22.80 million. Over the pre-season Chelsea played just 3 games, beating Arsenal but also losing to Bayern Munich and Internazionale in closely fought matches.
Antonio Conte will be without Eden Hazard (ankle surgery) and Tiemoué Bakayoko through injury but will otherwise have a full squad roster for the game.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea – MATCH PREDICTION
Chelsea will be eager to avenge their FA Cup defeat to Arsenal but still may lack the match-sharpness after a much shorter pre-season than their opponents. In addition to fitness, Arsenal also has recent Wembley history on their side, winning their last eight games played at the world-renown stadium including 3 FA Cup final wins and 2 Community Shield wins. It should also be noted that 2015’s Community Shield saw Arsenal overcome Chelsea after Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain scored the only goal of the game to make it 1:0.
For the reasons stated, and the odds looking good value I would recommend going for an Arsenal win. In addition, I will go with the over as I expect both sides to play for an extra goal scored.
Although I would say that the Community Shield often bears little significance on the season ahead, and counting on Arsenal to convert one win into a league title would be like expecting a team like Leicester to win the Premier League. Insanity.
MY PICK: Arsenal to Win (+240)
Additional Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-118)
