The third stage of Asia World Cup qualifying resumes with Round 7 on Tuesday, March 28.
After Round 6 played out just five days earlier, the pitch in Asia becomes the focus of our attention.
Round 7 of Asia World Cup qualifying features the same five games that were played in Round 2. This time, they will switch venues, and play the back end of the series on the other team’s pitch.
Let me again point out that only four guaranteed bids for Russia in 2018 come out of Asia. A fifth possible bid could be had, pending a playoff with a home and home series against the CONCACAF representative facing the same fate. CONCACAF also offers only four bids to the World Cup, with the same playoff opportunity to send a fifth team to the big dance in Russia. Ultimately, it will either be Asia or CONCACAF that gets a fifth team into the big tournament come June, 2018.
Group A and Group B both feature 6 six teams, and the top two from each group will advance directly to Russia for the World Cup. That fifth representative to endure a playoff will be given to the best third place finisher from either of the two groups.
The tables from each group can be found mostly anywhere that carries World Cup stuff, but I want it here too.
You can compare how the tables look now, compared to what they were in my article for Round 6.
Iran (14) has a four-point cushion atop Group A on South Korea (10), while Uzbekistan and Syria are fighting for third place.
Saudi Arabia and Japan are tied on top of Group B with 13 points, while Australia and UAE trail close behind.
Here are your tables from both groups through the first six rounds of the third stage of Asia World Cup qualifying.
Group A
Teams MP W D L GF GA +/- Pts
Iran 6MP 4W 2D 0L 5GF 0GA +5 14 Pts
Korea Rep 6MP 3W 1D 2L 8GF 7GA +1 10 Pts
Uzbekistan 6MP 3W 0D 3L 5GF 4GA +1 9 Pts
Syria 6MP 2W 2D 2L 2GF 2GA +0 8 Pts
China 6MP 1W 2D 3L 3GF 6GA -3 5 Pts
Qatar 6MP 1W 1D 4L 3GF 7GA -4 4 Pts
Group B
Teams MP W D L GF GA +/- Pts
Saudi Arabia 6MP 4W 1D 1L 12GA 5GA +7 13 Pts
Japan 6MP 4W 1D 1L 10GF 5GA +5 13 Pts
Australia 6MP 2W 4D 0L 9GF 6GA +3 10 Pts
U.A.E. 6MP 3W 0D 3L 7GF 8GA -1 9 Pts
Iraq 6MP 1W 1D 4L 7GF 9GA -2 4 Pts
Thailand 6MP 0W 1D 5L 3GF 15GA -12 1 Pts
We need some lines for the matches to discuss any action to follow, so let’s get em up!
Australia vs U.A.E
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Australia -285
U.A.E +840
Draw +410
Handicap/Spread:
Australia -1.5 +100
U.A.E +1.5 -120
Total 2.5:
Over -105
Under -115
Japan vs Thailand
Japan -1450
Thailand +2250
Draw +1400
Japan -3 -110
Thailand +3 -110
Total 4:
Over -110
Under -110
South Korea vs Syria
S. Korea -400
Syria +1355
Draw +480
S. Korea -1.5 -135
Syria +1.5 +115
Total 2.5
Over -105
Under -115
Iran vs China
Iran -175
China +575
Draw +285
Iran -1 +100
China +1 -120
Total 2:
Over -120
Under +100
Uzbekistan vs Qatar
Uzbekistan -125
Qatar +425
Draw +235
Uzbekistan -0.5 -125
Qatar +0.5 +105
Total 2:
Over +100
Under -120
Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
S. Arabia -165
Iraq +510
Draw +285
S. Arabia -1 +105
Iraq +1 -125
Total 2.5:
Over +125
Under -145
The line setters are not going to give away a play on Thailand as they did in the last round. Luckily for us, we caught that last week, and took advantage of Saudi Arabia handing Thailand a loss.
It won’t be as simple in this round, because Japan is laying -3 against Thailand on Tuesday. I do see that total at 4, however, and you know me by now, right? I like to discuss the possibility of goals being scored in every match that I look into. Sometimes the feeling is there to support the Over, and in this case, it is not. I can’t envision five goals in any match Japan plays in, to be honest with you. Even though we know that Thailand can be suspect defensively at times, Japan barely escaped the first meeting with a 2 – 0 win. There is not much reason to think all this goal scoring will suddenly break out there, so the first play I am suggesting is on the total
Suggested Play:
Japan / Thailand Total Under 4 Goals @ -110
The match between Australia and United Arab Emirates is obviously big in Group B. This result could essentially decide one of those third place teams that goes on to the playoff between the CONCACAF representative.
I am hoping that the two of them get in to a fun match to watch, despite the pressure on the pitch.
Australia should take these three points, but at -290 or whatever that line is there is zero value.
The value I think comes in the total, because a 2 – 1 match is how I see this playing out.
Suggested Play:
Australia / U.A.E Total Goals Over 2.5 @ -110
Saudi Arabia scores two goals at home all the damn time, and I am using that to my advantage.
I see the Saudi Arabia team total is 1.5, and it is listed at -115. Chump change to me, because Iraq is not going on the road and exactly stopping anyone either. in their three road fixtures, two goals against Iraq happened all three times, and I am not letting it happen again. At least without having some funds in it, of course!
Suggested Play:
Saudi Arabia / Iraq
Saudi Arabia Team Total Over 1.5 Goals @ -115
One more line that I find value in, comes in the match between Syria and South Korea. It was 0 – 0 in the first meeting in this third round of Asian World Cup qualifying, and I don’t see why we won’t see a similar result today. Let it be 0 – 0 again, or even 1 – 1 for all I care, but I see a chance on some value with the handicap. That total to stay under the 2.5 is a semi-reasonable -120 as well, so if you don’t mind that juice that is playable as well, in my opinion. But I at least wanted to make sure we get that +115 on the board.
Suggested Play:
South Korea / Syria
Syria +1.5 Goals AH @ +115
When you go to get your Asia World Cup action in, remember to use Diamond for all things soccer related. But please call it football, because soccer just doesn’t work for me!
