The Atlanta Braves will be taking on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The game gets underway 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will televise this interleague matchup.
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Odds
Vegas has listed Atlanta (+115) as the underdog to Boston (-125). The total is sitting at 10 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for an even +100. Runline odds sit at -180 for taking the Braves +1.5 runs and +160 for the Red Sox -1.5 runs.
The Red Sox are 35-16 SU and 26-24 ATS. The team has gained 10.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.8 units against the spread (ATS). Boston has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Braves have gone 29-20 SU this year and are 29-19 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 12.9 units for moneyline gamblers and 8.8 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Neither squad has positioned itself as a strong over/under bet this season. Red Sox games have an over/under record of 23-25-2 so far in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 22-23-3.
Left-hander Sean Newcomb will get the nod for the visiting Braves. Newcomb is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 58 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Red Sox are sending lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 5.97 ERA) to the mound. Pomeranz has 28 strikeouts and 16 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.78. Pomeranz did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.
Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.47 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.62, along with a WHIP of 1.34 and a K-per-9 of 8.90.
Braves hitters have slashed .263/.336/.424 on their way to 5.1 runs scored per game this year, including 3.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led Atlanta’s offense. Markakis is slashing .344/.414/.513 with seven home runs, 34 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Freeman (.324/.425/.546) has produced nine homers, 35 RBIs, 33 runs and five steals.
Maintaining a slash line of .278/.357/.524 across 143 plate appearances, Freeman didn’t perform especially well against lefty pitching last year (his overall season line was .307/.403/.586).
For the home team, Boston’s pitching staff has yielded 3.7 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 3.61, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.
The Boston hitters are putting up 5.3 runs per outing, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .241/.330/.487 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have led the way for the Red Sox offense this year. Betts is hitting .361/.438/.761 with 17 home runs, 37 RBIs, 50 runs and 13 steals, and Martinez’s line is .326/.381/.653 with 16 homers, 42 RBIs and 33 runs.
Compared to his total season slash line of .264/.344/.459, Betts enjoyed batting against lefties at home last year, slashing .358/.421/.567 over 76 such plate appearances.
The Braves have gained 6.3 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in seven of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Red Sox have lost 3.0 units and are 3-8 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, as opposed to six that’ve cashed the under.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Braves have lost three of their last four games SU while the Red Sox have won five of their last six SU.
Boston has recorded 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.6 over its last five.
The Braves have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 19 over their last 10.
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