In the last of a four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (50-62) and the Atlanta Braves (43-71) at Miller Park, Matt Garza (3-4, 5.03 ERA) and Roberto Hernandez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) get the ball. The Brewers won the last game 4-3, and Atlanta leads the series 2-1. The game gets underway at 2:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 11 and will air on FSSE.
In his most recent outing, Garza pitched 6.1 innings, giving up three runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking three in a 15-6 victory over the Diamondbacks. Ryan Braun (.325, 56 Rs, 19 HRs, 58 RBIs, 13 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. The Braves were also victorious the last time Hernandez pitched. He tossed 5.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out four and walking one in a 13-5 victory over the Cardinals. Freddie Freeman (.280, 62 Rs, 21 HRs, 48 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Braves, going 3 for 3 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and two RBIs.
Milwaukee is a -158 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at nine runs. The Brewers are 16-15 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -638. Over the last 10 games, they have performed poorly when playing as the favorite (1-3). The Brewers are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with an MLB-high 121 steals.
Switching gears, the Braves come into this game with a weak win percentage of .400 when playing as the underdog (40-60) and an overall money line of -432. Over the past 10 matchups, the team is 7-3 SU and has played well as the underdog with a 7-2 record. Atlanta has been playing better lately, averaging 4.8 runs per game, more than their season average of 3.5. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Atlanta batters, who rank third in the NL with 7.6 strikeouts per game. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Atlanta pitchers. They’ve allowed 3.4 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 4.6.
The Brewers have mostly come out on top against the Braves in their previous six games this season, earning a 4-2 record. The Brewers will take on a right-hander (Hernandez) in this game. They have struggled against right-handed starting pitchers this season, going 28-48. The right-handed Garza will take the mound against the Braves, who have a 31-43 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIL, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after seven innings, Milwaukee is 21-27, while Atlanta is 15-26.
The Braves are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 5-2 when opponents’ pitchers have five strikeouts or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 32-18. The Brewers have a 41-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta sits at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 404 this season. Milwaukee ranks near the bottom at 24th with 454.
Ranking 19th, Atlanta is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 326 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the top five at third with 426.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 39-29. When the Braves hit at least one homer, they have a 24-26 record.
