The Atlanta Braves will play their division rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Fox Sports Southeast will be televising the matchup. The first pitch will be at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Atlanta (+110) is coming into this one as the underdog against Philadelphia (-120) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Runline odds sit at -190 for betting the Braves +1.5 runs and +165 for the Phillies -1.5 runs.
The Braves have gone 28-18 SU this year and are 28-17 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 13.9 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season and 11.8 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 27-18 SU and 21-23 ATS. They’ve gained 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 4.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.
Neither team has positioned itself as a strong over/under play this year. Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 20-21-3 so far in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 22-20-3.
Brandon McCarthy is getting the start for the visiting Braves. The right-handed McCarthy is 4-2 with a 5.05 ERA and 38 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 with 17 strikeouts and a 2.25 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
The Phillies are planning to start righty Vince Velasquez (4-4, 4.37 ERA), who’s got 55 strikeouts and 16 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.31. Velasquez is 0-3 with 15 strikeouts and a 9.24 ERA in one start against Atlanta this year.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 3.8 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have a 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.72 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 23 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.73 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.32.
Philadelphia’s offense is putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .210/.275/.383 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies’ batters this year. Herrera is hitting .348/.413/.543 with seven home runs, 30 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line sits at .278/.391/.438 with six homers, 15 RBIs, 34 runs and nine stolen bases.
In the visiting dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.47 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.86 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.55, along with a K-per-9 of 9.02.
Braves hitters have slashed .264/.338/.431 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Atlanta’s offensive production been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis, who have combined to launch 16 home runs. Freeman is hitting .324/.428/.561 with nine home runs, 35 RBIs, 32 runs and five stolen bases, while Markakis is hitting .341/.409/.514 with seven homers, 32 RBIs and 31 runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .275/.354/.384, Markakis performed well against righties on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .327/.428/.442 across 257 such plate appearances.
The Braves have gained 7.6 units and are 21-12 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 3.3 units and are 15-18 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, compared to 16 that went under the total.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
Philadelphia has recorded 20.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 18.2 over its last five.
The Braves have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 14 over their last 10.
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