Madison Bumgarner (12-8, 2.44 ERA) gets the ball for the San Francisco Giants (70-59) as they meet Aaron Blair (0-5, 7.99 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (48-82) in the last of a three-game series at AT&T Park. The Braves won the last game 3-1, and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 28 and will air on CSBA and FSSO.
In his last start, Bumgarner pitched 5.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 9-5 loss to the Dodgers. Brandon Crawford (.274, 55 Rs, 12 HRs, 75 RBIs, 4 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Braves were unsuccessful against the Mets 8-6 the last time Blair pitched. He went 4.1 innings, giving up eight runs, striking out two and walking three. Freddie Freeman (.290, 77 Rs, 26 HRs, 62 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
San Francisco is a considerable -310 favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is set at seven runs. The Giants are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they’re the favorite (51-32), their overall money line (-297) is less impressive. The Giants typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.6 walks per game. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, the San Francisco pitching staff and defense has been very good, only giving up 4.0 runs per game. The Giants don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking fourth in the league with a 1.228 WHIP.
Switching gears, the Braves come into this game with a weak win percentage of .383 when playing as the underdog (44-71) and an overall money line of -996. Atlanta has been playing better lately, averaging 5.4 runs per game, more than their season average of 3.7. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Atlanta batters, who rank second in the NL with 7.6 strikeouts per road game. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Atlanta pitchers. They allowed 7.3 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.9.
The Giants will take on a right-hander (Blair) in this game and have a 46-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Bumgarner will take the mound against the Braves. Against lefty starters this season, they have an awful 14-27 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – SF, O/U – Over
Notes
Having scored one run in their last game, the Giants are going to have to step it up if they want to win this matchup. The Braves have a 19-3 record in games where opponents scored one run or less.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 7-57. The Giants have a 12-40 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 90 this season. San Francisco ranks 29th with 105 home runs.
Ranking 10th, Atlanta is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.42 per game. San Francisco ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.95.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.683). San Francisco ranks in the bottom half at 17th with an OPS of .733.
The Braves are 21-63 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Giants are 31-48 when they allow at least one homer.
