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Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick 09/09/18

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves are ready to face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Fox Sports Arizona will be televising this NL showdown and the game gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Atlanta (+130) is entering this game as the underdog to Arizona (-140) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -170 for the Braves +1.5 runs and +150 for the Diamondbacks -1.5.

The Braves have gone 78-64 SU this year and are 71-69 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 14.8 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 2.1 units ATS. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 76-66 SU and 72-69 ATS. They’ve lost 1.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 8.1 units ATS.

Arizona games have a 62-73-6 over/under record in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 66-68-6.

The right-handed Touki Toussaint is projected to start for the visiting Braves. Toussaint (1-1, 3.38 ERA) has racked up 10 strikeouts in 10.2 innings so far. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Diamondbacks are turning to lefty Robbie Ray (5-2, 4.25 ERA), who has 130 strikeouts and 52 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.39. Ray did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

Arizona’s pitching staff has given up 3.8 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.20, a WHIP of 1.22 and a K/9 of 8.2.

The Arizona hitters have produced 4.4 runs per outing, including 3.5 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .247/.369/.349 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Diamondbacks’ hitters have been led by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and left fielder David Peralta. Goldschmidt is slashing .298/.401/.557 with 33 home runs, 82 RBIs and 89 runs scored, and Peralta’s line is .296/.354/.518 with 26 homers, 75 RBIs and 69 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.62 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.07, along with a WHIP of 1.22.

The Braves offense has slashed .259/.327/.424 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman continue to lead Atlanta’s hitters. Markakis is hitting .312/.377/.467 with 14 home runs, 88 RBIs and 74 runs scored, while Freeman (.305/.386/.502) is up to 21 homers, 83 RBIs and 88 runs scored.

The Braves have lost 4.5 units and are 16-24 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 21 of those games, compared to 18 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 0.9 units and are 48-43 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 47 that’ve gone under.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The under has cashed in five of Arizona’s last seven games.

The Atlanta defense has allowed four errors over its last five games, compared to seven errors for Arizona over its last five.

The Braves have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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