The Atlanta Braves will face off against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The matchup will begin at 1:10 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to FOX Sports South.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Atlanta (-120) as the favorite over Miami (+110). Gamblers can bet on the game’s total with odds posted at even money (+100) for over 8 runs and -120 for under 8. The game’s most recent runline odds stand at +125 for betting the Braves -1.5 runs and -145 for the Marlins +1.5 runs.
The Marlins are just 14-25 SU and 19-19 ATS. The team has lost 1.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.4 units against the spread (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total went over in five of those seven. The Braves have gone 23-15 SU this year and are 23-14 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 10.2 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 9.6 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Marlins games have had an over/under record of 19-19 so far in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 18-16-3.
The left-handed Sean Newcomb will get the start for the visiting Braves. Newcomb is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 48 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made two starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record with a 4.91 ERA and eight strikeouts.
The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of righty Jose Urena (0-5, 4.37 ERA), who’s got 38 strikeouts and 11 walks, as well as a 1.28 WHIP. Urena made five starts against the team in 2017, posting a 2-1 record in 2017, putting together a 2-1 record with a 2.76 ERA and 18 strikeouts.
Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.93 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.50, along with a K-per-9 of 9.25.
The Braves offense has slashed .270/.341/.445 on its way to 5.5 runs scored per game this year, including 6.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Atlanta’s offensive production been powered by first baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis, who collectively have swatted 15 home runs. Freeman is slashing .331/.431/.593 with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Markakis has a .346 average with seven homers, 29 RBIs and 28 runs scored.
Markakis enjoyed batting against righties on the road in 2017. Over 257 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .327/.428/.442 (his total season line was .275/.354/.384).
For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 5.4 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.85, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 5.53 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 12 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 5.34 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.94.
The Miami offense is putting up 3.5 runs per outing, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .254/.319/.420 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Justin Bour have led the Marlins’ batters this year. Realmuto is slashing .317/.385/.549 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored, and Bour’s line is .228/.371/.430 with seven homers, 18 RBIs and 13 runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .278/.332/.451, Realmuto seemed to enjoy hitting lefties at home last season, slashing .327/.377/.582 over 61 such plate appearances.
The Braves have gained 7.3 units and are 18-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, as opposed to 11 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.1 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Braves have won four of their last five games SU.
Atlanta has recorded 24.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 22.8 over its last five.
The Braves have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
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