Mike Foltynewicz (4-6, 5.71 ERA) and Chris Narveson (1-1, 7.04 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Atlanta Braves (54-75) and the Miami Marlins (52-79) at Turner Field. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 31 and can be seen on FSFL and SPSO.
Foltynewicz pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs (four unearned), striking out three and walking one in a 5-1 defeat to the Rockies. Freddie Freeman (.282, 49 Rs, 15 HRs, 50 RBIs, 3 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one RBI. Narveson went 3.2 innings, surrendering seven runs, striking out three and walking three in a 7-2 defeat to the Pirates in his most recent start. Justin Bour (.250, 28 Rs, 14 HRs, 45 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
Atlanta is a -125 favorite against Miami and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Braves have an overall money line of -1,255 and a record as the favorite of 14-12. Within its division, Atlanta has an 8-8 record as favorite and a 25-25 record SU. The Braves have seen an uptick in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 4.0 runs per game. They average 3.6 runs per game on the season. The Braves lead the MLB in extra base hits with 310. Atlanta strikes out the least of any team in the NL, with only 6.9 per game. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 8.2 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.7.
In the other locker room, Miami is coming in with an overall money line of -2,354 and a disappointing record of 30-52 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 2-8 record SU. Offensively, the Marlins have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 3.7 runs per game by averaging 2.2 during that stretch. The Marlins have a dynamic offense, ranking second in the league with 311 extra base hits. The Marlins are an excellent base stealing team with 94 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB.
The Braves have controlled the season series, 10-3. The Braves have a 9-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Narveson takes the mound. Foltynewicz (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 42-62 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Under
Notes
The Braves lost their last game by a 14-run margin. In games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more, the Marlins are 2-3. The Braves are 1-3 in blowouts this season.
Miami has won 36% (24-42) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Atlanta has won 37% (23-39) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Braves who are heading in with a 21-19 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 36-20. The Braves have a 37-18 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th in runs, Atlanta has earned 469 this season. Miami ranks 29th with 481 runs.
Ranking 26th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 308 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top half at 15th with 366.
The Braves are 32-29 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Marlins are 31-39 when they hit at least one homer.
