Julio Teheran (4-3, 5.07 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (34-35) meet Matt Harvey (7-4, 3.32 ERA) and the New York Mets (36-34) in the last of a three-game division series at Turner Field. The Braves won the last game 6-4 and Atlanta leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 5:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 21 and will air on PIX11 and FSN-S.
Teheran is 4-3 with a 3.46 ERA, 43 strikeouts and 25 walks against the Mets in his career. In his career against the Braves, Harvey is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA. He meets a solid Atlanta offense that’s batting .259. Lucas Duda (.273, 37 Rs, 10 HRs, 30 RBIs) went 1 for 2 yesterday.
Atlanta is a +119 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at six runs. The Braves are 23-29 as the underdog and have an overall money line of +381. They have an SU record of 15-16 against teams in their division and a 10-12 record when they were the underdog in those games.
Across the field, the Mets have a nice record of 30-10 when they are favored and are +84 overall with the money line. Against divisional foes, they are 23-13 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 19-7 record. New York has stepped up their play against division opponents. They have averaged 4.1 runs per game, more than their season average of 3.7. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the New York pitchers. They allowed 5.0 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 3.9. They have a WHIP of 1.21, fifth best in the MLB.
The Mets have mostly come out on top against the Braves in their previous 11 games this season, earning a 6-5 record. The Braves will take on a right-hander (Harvey) in this game and have a 29-30 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Teheran will take the mound against the Mets, who have a 30-27 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
New York recorded at least two errors for the ninth time this season.
When the Mets play into extra innings, they have a 3-1 record. The Braves are 2-3 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Mets managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Braves who are heading in with a 13-10 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 6-22. The Mets have a 10-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 29th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 41 this season. New York ranks 16th with 61 home runs.
Ranking 15th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.93 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.79.
Ranking 25th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.675). Atlanta ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .694.
When the Mets allow at least one home run, they are 15-24, well-matched with the Braves who are 13-25 when allowing at least one homer.
