Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick 05/21/18

The Atlanta Braves will head north to Citizens Bank Park to take on their divisional foe Philadelphia Phillies. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans looking to watch it can tune in to Fox Sports Southeast.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (-125) is the favorite over Atlanta (+115) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at nine runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at Braves +1.5 runs (-180) and Phillies +-1.5 runs (+160).

The Braves are 28-17 SU and have gone 28-16 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 12.9 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season and 12.8 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 26-18 SU and 21-22 ATS. They’ve gained 7.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 3.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 20-20-3 so far in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 21-20-3.

The right-handed Mike Foltynewicz is projected to start for the visiting Braves. Foltynewicz is 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 57 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 21 strikeouts and a 2.12 ERA against Philadelphia this year (three starts).

The Phillies will turn to righty Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.72 ERA) to the mound. Pivetta has 53 punchouts and 11 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.13. Pivetta is 0-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 5.14 ERA across three starts against Atlanta this year.

Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.89 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.49, along with a WHIP of 1.34 and a K-per-9 of 9.02.

Braves hitters have slashed .266/.341/.437 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Nick Markakis have led Atlanta’s hitters. Freeman is hitting .325/.431/.568 with nine home runs, 35 RBIs and 32 runs scored, while Markakis has a .343 average with seven homers, 32 RBIs and 31 runs scored.

Markakis thrived hitting against righty pitching on the road last season. Over 257 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .327/.428/.442 (his total season line was .275/.354/.384).

For the home team, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 3.9 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.77 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 22 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.96 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.42.

The Philadelphia hitters have produced 4.7 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .211/.274/.380 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Phillies’ hitters have been led by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Herrera is hitting .344/.411/.544 with seven home runs, 30 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line is .277/.389/.440 with six homers, 15 RBIs, 34 runs and nine steals.

The Braves have gained 7.6 units and are 21-12 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 4.5 units and are 15-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 15 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

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