This game could be low scoring as Shelby Miller (5-4, 2.20 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (40-41) meet Cole Hamels (5-6, 3.22 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (27-56) in the last of a three-game series at Turner Field. The Phillies lost the last game 9-5, extending a six-game losing streak. The game gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and will air on CSN-PHI and FSN-S.
Miller is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA, 24 strikeouts and nine walks against the Phillies in his career. Cameron Maybin (.295, 34 Rs, 7 HRs, 39 RBIs, 15 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 5 with three runs, one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base. In his pitching opportunities against the Braves, Hamels is 16-9 with a 3.21 ERA. He gets a solid Atlanta offense that’s batting .256. Cesar Hernandez (.288, 29 Rs, 1 HR, 19 RBIs, 9 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
Atlanta is a -120 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is six runs. The Braves have a winning record of 11-6 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +558. They have SU record of 4-6 and are unbeaten as the favorite (1-0) over their last 10 games. The Braves will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In the last 10 games, Atlanta has only averaged 1.9 runs per game compared to the 3.9 they’ve averaged on the season. They typically aren’t overmatched by pitchers, leading the NL with an average of only 6.8 strikeouts per game. As for the pitching staff, the Braves are fourth in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 8.3 per game.
Across the field, the Phillies have a subpar record of 24-49 when they are the underdog and are -1,968 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 2-8 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 2-7 record. Philadelphia has been playing better lately, averaging 4.5 runs per game, more than their season average of 3.4. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Philadelphia batters, who rank third in the NL with 7.0 strikeouts per game. Playing against NL East foes really brings the best out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allow 4.3 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 5.0.
The Braves have gotten the best of the Phillies in head-to-head matchups this season, going 5-3. This game will feature Hamels (RHP) on the mound against the Braves, who have a 33-35 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Miller will take the mound against the Phillies. Against righty starters this season, they have a terrible 22-45 record overall and 7-24 on the road.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, O/U – Under
Notes
For the 14th time this season, the Phillies registered at least two errors in a game.
The Braves and the Phillies are both 2-5 in games that go into extra innings.
The Phillies managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Braves who are heading in with a 10-6 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Phillies are 8-42. The Braves have an 8-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 50 this season. Philadelphia ranks 29th with 52 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Philadelphia is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.32 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.64.
Atlanta and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Atlanta sits at 24th with an OPS of .684 and Philadelphia ranks 28th with an OPS of .658.
The Phillies are 12-37 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Braves are 14-27 when they allow at least one homer.
