Tanner Roark (12-6, 2.88 ERA) and Tyrell Jenkins (2-2, 3.92 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Washington Nationals (68-47) and the Atlanta Braves (44-73) at Nationals Park. The Nationals won the last game 7-6, and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 14 and can be seen on MASN and FSSO.
Roark pitched 7.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out five and walking three in a 1-0 win over the Giants. Daniel Murphy (.348, 70 Rs, 22 HRs, 86 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and four RBIs. Jenkins went 6.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out three and walking three in a 2-1 win over the Brewers in his last outing. Matt Kemp (.259, 60 Rs, 24 HRs, 75 RBIs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Washington, a big -250 favorite, takes on Atlanta. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Nationals have recorded an overall money line of +45 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 58-32. Washington has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 26-11 and 31-15 records as the favorite and SU, respectively. The Nationals have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the NL in offense with 4.7 runs per game. The Nationals are one of the best in the MLB in terms of home runs with 152. Washington is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.5 per game. Opposing batters know they’re in for a battle when they play Washington. The Nationals are one of the top teams when it comes to pitching, allowing just 3.5 runs per game. The Nationals are the third-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.165 so far this season.
Over in the other dugout, Atlanta is coming in with an overall money line of -512 and a disappointing record of 41-63 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 20-22 record against teams in their division, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Braves have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.6 runs per game by averaging 5.0 during that stretch. The Braves average 4.7 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL East is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 3.9 against division foes.
The Nationals have controlled the season series, 7-1. The Nationals have a 52-36 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Jenkins takes the mound. Roark (RHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 32-46 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – WAS, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Braves lost by a margin of one run. The Nationals are 17-13 in one-run games. The Braves have a 14-18 record in close games.
The Nationals are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded three strikeouts. The Braves have a record of 5-3 when opponents’ pitchers have three strikeouts or less.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 7-49. The Nationals have a 12-28 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks at the bottom of the league when it comes to home runs, hitting 79 this season. Washington ranks in the top five with 152.
Washington and Atlanta both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Washington sits at eighth with 8.54 hits per game and Atlanta ranks 10th with 8.34.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.676). Washington ranks in the top 10 with an OPS of .758.
The Braves are 19-57 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Nationals are 39-36 when they allow at least one homer.
