Two of the league’s best will be on display in this game, as the NFL’s second-leading rusher, Doug Martin (1,038 yards, 3 TDs), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) play top receiver, Julio Jones (1,245 yards, 6 TDs), and the Atlanta Falcons (6-5). Tampa Bay has had a subpar season, but has shown signs of life lately, winning three of its last five. The game will begin Sunday, Dec 6 at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX.
The Week 8 matchup between the Buccaneers and the Falcons ended in a 23-20 loss for Atlanta. Kwon Alexander led the Buccaneers defense in that game, registering six tackles and one interception. Jacob Tamme had a big performance for Atlanta, totaling 10 catches for 103 yards and one TD. Julio Jones had a big day as well, contributing 162 yards and a TD on 12 receptions.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 45 points.
Heading into Week 13 of league action, the Buccaneers are 5-6 Straight Up (SU) and 6-5 Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Tampa Bay is 3-2 for both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers are known to run the ball. Their 29.4 rushing attempts per game are the fifth-most in the NFL. The Tampa Bay run defense has played at a high level the past five games. It has given up 84.0 rush yards per game during that span. One of the keys to the game will be if the Buccaneers can take advantage of the turnover-prone Falcons, who rank 28th in the league in turnovers with 1.9 per game. The Buccaneers should keep an eye on Atlanta’s defensive struggles during the second quarter of away games, when it gives up 10.2 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Falcons have 6-5 SU and 4-7 ATS records this season. In the last five games, the Falcons have a 1-4 SU record and have not covered the spread once. Offensively, they might be able to exploit a defense that struggles at home. The Buccaneers give up a whopping 29.6 points per home game. Tampa Bay’s defensive backs will want to be ready for their opponent’s passing attack. The Falcons average 283.8 yards through the air over their past five games. This week, the Falcons will be tasked with shutting down Tampa Bay’s offense, which averages a meager 20.6 points per home game. Lately, the Falcons have an improved pass defense. They’re allowing only 182.6 passing YPG over their last five matchups. The Falcons could take advantage of Tampa Bay’s reputation as a slow starter on defense. The Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL in first-quarter points allowed at home with an average of 8.8. Tampa Bay may want to focus on avoiding mistakes this week. The Buccaneers lead the league in penalties with 9.9 per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Atl, ATS Winner – Atl, O/U – Under
Notes
Tampa Bay is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay’s last 21 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games at home.
Tampa Bay is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games at home.
Tampa Bay is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home.
Tampa Bay is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 3-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU when leading after three quarters.
Remarkably, Tampa Bay is only 1-4 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
When it comes to passing this year, Atlanta is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its fifth-ranked passing attack will face the 14th-ranked pass defense of Tampa Bay, while its 15th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 25th-ranked passing game of the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has given up 29.6 points per game at home this year, which ranks it only 31st in the league. Atlanta has scored 22.0 points per game on the road (ranked 14th overall).
