The Atlanta Hawks (10-30) look to end their 10-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Denver Nuggets (21-19) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215.5 points with Denver set as a 9.5-point favorite.
Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Hawks are trying to rebound after their 108-107 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last contest. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Los Angeles’ biggest strengths. They had 34 free throw attempts, while Atlanta had 29. Atlanta’s Ersan Ilyasova played well, recording 13 points and 13 rebounds.
The last time the Nuggets played, they fell to the Golden State Warriors, 124-114. Golden State’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Denver. The Warriors had a rate of 0.176 (below their season average of 0.196), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.126 (below their season average of 0.190). Denver’s Nikola Jokic put together a great game, registering 22 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists on his way to his zeroth triple-double this year.
This has potential to be an error-filled game for the offense of Denver. Denver ranks 26th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.2 percent), while the gambling defense of Atlanta forces the most turnovers in the NBA (16.2 percent).
Atlanta comes into the contest with records of 10-30 straight up (SU) and 21-17-2 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Hawks have a slight tendency to finish over the projected point total (50.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver is 21-19 SU and 19-19-2 ATS. Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 22 of their 40 games have gone under the projected point total.
Trey Lyles and Jamal Murray have played well over the last five games for Denver. Lyles has averaged 20.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Not to be outdone, Murray has put up 21.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists a game during that span.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Jokic recorded 18 points, 15 rebounds and five assists and the Nuggets topped the Hawks 105-100 but could not cover as 7.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 205 points, which was 5.5 points below the projected point total of 210.5 points. The Nuggets made 17 of their 23 free throws (73.9 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (9.8 vs. 11.3).
Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Atlanta is 11-9-2 ATS with 12 unders and 10 overs.
Denver is 11-7 ATS at home with 10 unders and 8 overs.
Atlanta is 3-3 when they allow under 100 points, while Denver is 11-2.
When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 17-12 and the Hawks are 10-17.
Denver averages 15.0 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
The Hawks rank third in points off turnovers per game (18.6) while the Nuggets rank 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.2).
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (23.7) while Atlanta ranks 28th in assists allowed per game (25.5).
The Nuggets rank third in points in the paint per game (49.2) while the Hawks rank 25th (41.1).
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.2) while Atlanta ranks 27th (40.4).
The Hawks rank sixth in steals per game (8.5) while the Nuggets rank 25th in steals allowed per game (8.4).
Denver averages 30.4 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (30.9).
The Nuggets average 13.9 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Hawks rank 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.2).
Denver ranks 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while Atlanta ranks 26th (5.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Atlanta is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 4.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.8 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
