The Atlanta Hawks (27-19) travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to take on the Miami Heat (25-21) in a matchup of the Southeast Division’s top two teams. The game gets underway at 6:00 pm ET on Sunday, Jan. 31 and will air on FxS and SUN.
The Heat were victorious over the Nets 102-98 the last time they played. Dwyane Wade led all scorers on the team with 27 points on 11-for-22 shooting. The Hawks, meanwhile, are coming off a 119-105 win over the Nuggets in their last outing. Paul Millsap led the game in scoring with 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
Scoring chances at the line might be quite scarce for the Hawks in this matchup. They are 27th in the league in free throw attempt rate (24.2), while Miami is among the league’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 23.3, ranking second in the NBA).
The two teams have split their matchups this season. The Heat had the upper hand in the most recent game, a 100-88 win. Kent Bazemore scored a game-high 28 points.
The Heat are attempting to build on their records of 26-21 Straight Up (SU) and 23-23-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 4-4 both SU and ATS against their division at home. An area where the Heat are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 6.5 blocks per game, second in the NBA.
On the other side, the Hawks head into the game with records of 22-24-2 ATS and 27-21 SU. In divisional games, Atlanta has gone 6-2 SU and 4-3-1 ATS. The Hawks are shooting lights out from the foul line so far, with a .793 free throw percentage that ranks fifth in the NBA. The Hawks rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the fourth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league at 1.78. Atlanta makes opponents pay for turning the ball over, leading the league in points off turnovers with an average of 19.9 per game.
Miami won the last meeting this season between these two teams, but the Hawks still lead the head-to-head record over the last 10, 7-3 SU. The Hawks also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3.
Predictions: SU Winner – Atl
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta.
Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta.
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami’s last 18 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Miami.
Miami ranks 28th in points per game with 95.7, while Atlanta ranks seventh in points allowed with an average of 99.9 given up.
On average, Miami puts up 98.5 points per home game (ranked 26th), while Atlanta allows 102.0 points per away game (ranked 11th).
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Miami Heat are a solid 21-10. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Atlanta Hawks have an underachieving record of 5-16.
The Miami Heat have a poor 4-11 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Atlanta Hawks are 22-3 when they hit triple digits.
The Heat have an offensive rating of 102.3 (ranked 20th). The Hawks rank eighth for their defensive rating of 101.1.
With 93.3 possessions and 1.023 points per possession, the Miami Heat perform worse on both metrics than the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta averages 98.5 possessions and 1.040 points per possession.
The Atlanta Hawks have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking fifth in the league with an EFF% of 51.5%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Miami Heat have a losing 5-11 record.
Atlanta, the second-ranked team in terms of assists, makes an average of 25.6 per game. Miami ranks lower at 26th with 20.0.
Miami ranks near the top of the league in blocking at second (6.5 blocks per game). Atlanta is ranked ninth, with 5.6 blocks per game.
Miami is ranked 27th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Atlanta ranks 25th in defensive rebounds.
The Atlanta Hawks average 9.6 steals per game (ranked third). The Miami Heat have a losing 4-10 record when they allow at least 9 steals.
