The Atlanta Hawks (3-11) will try to snap their five-game losing streak when they square off against the Denver Nuggets (9-5) at Pepsi Center. The game will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 15, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 223 points with Denver set as a 12.5-point favorite.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
In the Hawks’ last contest, they were topped by the Golden State Warriors, 110-103, but they were able to cover as 11.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (213) were well under the O/U total of 229. One of Golden State’s biggest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 20-21 (95.2 percent), while the Hawks were 11-15 (73.3 percent). Taurean Prince was Atlanta’s leading scorer with 22 points on 8-for-14 shooting.
The Nuggets were beaten by the Houston Rockets in their last matchup, 109-99, despite being 4.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (208) finished under the O/U total of 217.5. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Houston’s largest advantages. They had 26 free throw attempts, while Denver had 16. Denver’s Nikola Jokic contributed 14 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in the contest.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Hawks won the most recent contest 110-97. Atlanta did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (18-18; 100.0 percent). Denver, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (10.4 vs. 15.4).
Atlanta heads into the game with records of 3-11 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is extremely accurate when setting the O/U total of Hawks games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Denver is 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS. Vegas tends to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 64.3 percent of their games have gone under the O/U total.
Denver could own the offensive glass in this matchup. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.8 percent), while Atlanta ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (75.2 percent). It will also be a showdown of contrasting paces as the fast-paced Hawks rank second in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Nuggets rank 26th.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Atlanta is 4-4 ATS on the road with 4 overs and 4 unders.
Denver is 5-4 ATS at home with 5 unders and 4 overs.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Atlanta is 0-1 and Denver is 5-1.
When reaching the century mark, the Nuggets are 9-3 and the Hawks are 3-9.
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.1) while Atlanta ranks 25th (47.9).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (15.6) while the Hawks rank 26th in second chance points allowed per game (17.0).
Denver averages 18.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Atlanta ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (24.1).
The Nuggets rank eighth in assists per game (24.7) while the Hawks rank 28th in assists allowed per game (26.8).
Denver ranks ninth in fast break points allowed per game (12.1) while Atlanta ranks 28th (16.5).
The Nuggets average 8.6 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Hawks rank 25th in steals allowed per game (9.6).
Atlanta ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (35.1) while Denver ranks 22nd (28.5).
The Hawks average 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Nuggets rank 24th in blocks allowed per game (6.3).
Atlanta ranks 11th in points in the paint per game (48.6) while Denver ranks 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.9).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Atlanta is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.8, down from 8.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (4.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
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